Dolphins vs Bills Week 3: Expert Prediction, Odds, and Betting Trends

Get ready for a Thursday Night Football showdown as the undefeated Buffalo Bills host the winless Miami Dolphins in a crucial AFC East matchup. We break down the latest odds from bet105, analyze key trends, and provide an expert prediction for this highly anticipated game.

The Buffalo Bills are riding high after a dominant 2-0 start to the 2025 NFL season. Fresh off a blowout victory against the New York Jets, the Bills look to continue their winning streak against a struggling Miami Dolphins team. The Dolphins, on the other hand, are still searching for their first win after a disappointing 0-2 start, including a recent 33-27 loss to the New England Patriots.

This article provides a comprehensive betting preview of the Dolphins vs. Bills Week 3 matchup. We’ll delve into the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, examine the latest betting odds from bet105, and offer our expert prediction to help you make informed wagering decisions.

Bills Mafia in Full Force: Buffalo’s Dominance at Home

The Buffalo Bills have been nearly unbeatable at home, boasting an impressive record since the start of the 2022 season. With reigning MVP Josh Allen at the helm, the Bills’ offense is a juggernaut, capable of putting up points in bunches. They demonstrated their offensive firepower in Week 1 against the Ravens, with Allen throwing for 394 yards and two touchdowns. Even in their Week 2 victory over the Jets, where Allen had a relatively quiet game with 148 passing yards, the Bills’ defense stepped up, holding New York to just 10 points.

According to the latest odds from bet105, the Bills are heavy favorites to win this game, with a moneyline of -769. This reflects their strong start to the season and their historical dominance at home. The spread is set at Buffalo -13, with odds of +115, suggesting that oddsmakers expect a comfortable victory for the Bills.

Dolphins’ Defensive Woes: A Cause for Concern

The Miami Dolphins are heading into Week 3 with a leaky defense that has been a major cause for concern. They have allowed 33 points in both of their games this season, a worrying trend as they prepare to face one of the most explosive offenses in the league. The Dolphins’ secondary, which has seen significant turnover since last season with the departure of key players like Jalen Ramsey, Jevon Holland, and Jordan Poyer, has been particularly vulnerable.

Opposing quarterbacks have had their way with the Dolphins’ defense so far. In Week 1, Daniel Jones of the New York Giants had a stellar performance, throwing for 272 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for two more. In Week 2, rookie quarterback Drake Maye of the New England Patriots threw for 230 yards and two touchdowns, and also ran for a score. These performances highlight the challenges the Dolphins’ defense will face against Josh Allen and the Bills’ high-powered offense.

The bet105 odds reflect the market’s lack of confidence in the Dolphins. Their moneyline is a distant +581, and they are 13-point underdogs. The total for the game is set at 49.5, with the over at -109 and the under at -103, indicating that a high-scoring affair is anticipated, likely driven by the Bills’ offense.

Historical Trends and Betting Patterns

When examining the historical context of this matchup, several trends emerge that support the current betting lines. The Buffalo Bills have been dominant at home, losing only three games since the start of the 2022 season. This home field advantage is particularly pronounced in primetime games, where the Bills have consistently performed above expectations.

The Dolphins, conversely, have struggled in road games against quality opponents. Their 0-2 start against the spread this season continues a troubling pattern from late last season. Miami failed to cover as a slight road underdog in Week 1 and couldn’t cover as a home favorite in Week 2, suggesting that the betting market may still be overvaluing this team.

Thursday Night Football games often favor the more prepared and disciplined team, which historically has been Buffalo in recent years. The short week can expose teams with depth issues or those still working through early-season chemistry problems, both of which appear to apply to Miami’s current situation.

Offensive Matchup Analysis

While much attention has been focused on Miami’s defensive struggles, the offensive side of the ball presents its own set of challenges for the Dolphins. Tua Tagovailoa has shown flashes of brilliance but has been inconsistent in his first two games. Against the Patriots, Miami managed only 20 points from their offense, with their other touchdown coming from a punt return.

The Bills’ defense, meanwhile, showed significant improvement from Week 1 to Week 2. After allowing 35 points to the Ravens in their season opener, Buffalo’s defense completely shut down the Jets, holding them to just 10 points. This defensive turnaround, combined with their offensive firepower, makes them a formidable opponent for any team, let alone one struggling as much as Miami.

Josh Allen’s dual-threat capability adds another dimension that Miami’s defense must account for. His ability to extend plays with his legs and make throws from unconventional arm angles has consistently troubled AFC East opponents. With the Dolphins’ secondary already showing vulnerabilities, Allen’s mobility could create even more problems for Miami’s defense.

Betting Strategy and Value Analysis

From a betting perspective, several opportunities present themselves in this matchup. The spread has moved from an opening line of Bills -12.5 to the current -13, indicating sharp money backing Buffalo. However, bet105 is offering +115 on the Bills -13, which represents solid value for those confident in a Buffalo blowout.

For more conservative bettors, the Bills’ team total over 29.5 points at -151 appears to be a safer play. Given their offensive capabilities and Miami’s defensive struggles, Buffalo should easily surpass this number. The Dolphins’ team total under 19.5 at -110 also presents value, considering their offensive inconsistencies and the Bills’ improving defense.

The total points market offers interesting opportunities as well. While the 49.5 total might seem high, the combination of Buffalo’s explosive offense and Miami’s defensive vulnerabilities suggests the over could hit comfortably. However, if Buffalo builds a large lead early, they may rest key players in the fourth quarter, potentially keeping the total under.

Weather and External Factors

Thursday Night Football games in Buffalo can be influenced by weather conditions, particularly as the season progresses into fall. Early September weather should be favorable for offensive production, which supports the over on the total points. The short week also means less preparation time for both teams, but this typically favors the more talented and experienced squad, which clearly is Buffalo in this matchup.

The primetime spotlight often brings out the best in elite players like Josh Allen, while it can expose weaknesses in struggling teams like Miami. The national television audience will be watching to see if the Dolphins can turn their season around or if the Bills will make a statement about their championship aspirations.

Player Prop Bets to Watch

For those looking to dive deeper into the betting action, bet105 offers a wide range of player props for this matchup. Here are several that stand out based on our analysis:

Tua Tagovailoa (MIA): The over/under for Tagovailoa’s passing yards is set at 236.5. Given the Dolphins will likely be playing from behind and forced to throw frequently in the second half, the over at -122 presents solid value. His passing attempts prop of 34.5 also leans toward the over, as Miami will need to air it out to keep pace with Buffalo’s offense. His passing touchdowns prop is set at 1.5, with the over at +134 and the under at a heavily juiced -180, reflecting the market’s expectation that Miami will struggle to find the end zone through the air.

Josh Allen (BUF): Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 233.5, with both the over and under at -115. After a quiet Week 2 where he threw for only 148 yards, expect a bounce-back performance from the MVP against Miami’s vulnerable secondary. The over on his 1.5 passing touchdowns at -171 seems like a solid bet despite the high price, given his red zone efficiency and Miami’s defensive struggles. His rushing props also offer value, as Allen’s mobility could be a key factor in breaking down Miami’s defense.

James Cook (BUF): The Bills’ running back has a rushing yards prop of 67.5. With the Bills expected to control the game and potentially build a large lead, Cook should see plenty of opportunities to rack up yards on the ground. The over at -120 is a strong possibility, especially if Buffalo gets ahead early and looks to control the clock in the second half.

Receiving Props: Several Bills receivers offer intriguing prop bets. With Miami’s secondary depleted, Buffalo’s passing attack should find success through multiple targets. Look for value in the receiving yards props for the Bills’ top targets, as they should benefit from favorable matchups throughout the game.

Expert Prediction and Final Thoughts

While the Dolphins’ offense showed some signs of life against the Patriots, their defense is simply no match for the Buffalo Bills’ high-octane attack. The Bills’ dominance at home, coupled with the Dolphins’ struggles on the road and their vulnerable secondary, points to a lopsided affair.

The SI.com expert prediction of Bills -12.5 seems to be on the right track. Looking at the bet105 odds, the value might be in taking the Bills to cover the spread, even at -13 (+115). For a safer bet, the moneyline at -769 is a strong parlay piece.

Our Pick: Buffalo Bills -13 (+115)