Dallas Cowboys vs Las Vegas Raiders Betting Analysis – Monday Night Football Week 11 2025

Monday Night Football brings an intriguing matchup between two struggling franchises desperately seeking momentum in Week 11 of the 2025 season. The Dallas Cowboys (3-5-1) travel to Allegiant Stadium to face the Las Vegas Raiders (2-7) in a game that carries playoff implications for Dallas and pride implications for both organizations. Fresh off their bye week, the Cowboys look to incorporate newly acquired defensive talent Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson, while the Raiders aim to end a three-game losing streak on their home turf.

This analytical breakdown examines the statistical trends, roster dynamics, and market positioning surrounding Cowboys vs Raiders odds analysis Week 11 2025, providing data-driven insights into how both teams match up across multiple betting markets.

Current Form & Statistical Analysis

Dallas Cowboys: Offensive Excellence, Defensive Struggles

The Cowboys enter Week 11 as one of the NFL’s most statistically polarizing teams. Offensively, Dallas ranks fourth in total yards per game (378.4) and fourth in scoring (29.2 PPG), demonstrating consistent production through the air and increasingly on the ground. Quarterback Dak Prescott has thrown for 2,069 yards with 16 touchdowns and five interceptions through eight games in the 2025 season, posting a 101.6 passer rating while maintaining efficient production despite the team’s struggles.

The Cowboys’ passing attack centers around CeeDee Lamb and recently acquired George Pickens, creating a dynamic duo that has tested every secondary they’ve faced. Dallas ranks in the top 10 in explosive pass plays, averaging multiple completions of 20-plus yards per game. The offensive line has improved in recent weeks, allowing Prescott more time to work through progressions.

However, the Cowboys’ defensive metrics reveal serious concerns. Dallas ranks 31st in total defense (397.4 yards allowed per game) and dead last in scoring defense, allowing 30.8 points per contest. The run defense ranks among the league’s worst in EPA per rush allowed and yards after contact, while the pass defense sits 30th in EPA per pass. These deficiencies forced Dallas to make aggressive trade deadline moves, acquiring Williams from the Jets and Wilson from the Bengals.

The Cowboys are 4-5 against the spread this season and 2-3 ATS on the road. The Over has hit in six of nine games (6-3), reflecting the team’s high-scoring offensive identity paired with porous defensive play.

Las Vegas Raiders: Offensive Ineptitude, Defensive Inconsistency

The Raiders present a stark contrast, ranking among the league’s worst offensive units. Las Vegas ranks 26th in EPA per pass and 32nd in EPA per rush, struggling to generate consistent production in any phase. Quarterback Geno Smith has completed 204 of 323 attempts (63.2%) for 1,844 yards with 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions through nine games, including a concerning quad injury suffered against Denver in Week 10.

The Raiders’ offensive line has been ravaged by injuries, with starter Jackson Powers-Johnson on injured reserve and Dylan Parham battling injuries. Rookie guard Caleb Rogers is expected to make his first career start against a Cowboys defensive line that, despite its struggles, added the three-time Pro Bowl interior presence of Quinnen Williams.

Running back Ashton Jeanty, the No. 6 overall pick, has shown flashes of his Boise State brilliance with 16 broken tackles (second in the NFL) and 321 yards after contact (seventh). However, inconsistent offensive line play has limited his efficiency, as he averages just 3.8 yards per carry. The trade of wide receiver Jakobi Meyers to Jacksonville further depleted an already limited receiving corps.

Defensively, the Raiders rank 20th in points allowed (24.4 PPG) and 15th in yards allowed (320.8 YPG). They’ve performed well against the run, ranking top-five in opponent yards per carry (3.8) and top-11 in opponent yards per pass (6.9). However, Las Vegas ranks 25th in sack rate (5.7%), consistently failing to generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

The Raiders are 4-5 against the spread with a 1-2-1 ATS record at home. The Under has hit in six of nine games (6-3), reflecting the offense’s inability to score consistently.

Head-to-Head History & Situational Context

The Cowboys and Raiders share a storied rivalry dating to the 1960s, with the Raiders leading the all-time regular season series 7-6. Their most recent meeting came on Thanksgiving 2021, when Las Vegas escaped with a 36-33 overtime victory in Arlington. That game featured 69 combined points and 901 combined yards, showcasing both teams’ offensive capabilities at the time.

Notably, this marks Dallas’ first regular-season game in Las Vegas, as the Raiders relocated from Oakland in 2020. The Cowboys should enjoy significant crowd support, as their national fanbase typically travels well and represents a substantial portion of spectators in neutral-site games.

Key Situational Factors

Dallas’ Bye Week Impact: The Cowboys utilized their Week 10 bye to integrate Williams and Wilson into defensive schemes. Both players practiced extensively with the team and are expected to debut Monday night. Historical data suggests teams coming off bye weeks perform well, particularly when facing opponents on short rest.

Las Vegas’ Extended Rest: The Raiders played Thursday night in Week 10, providing them 10 days between games compared to Dallas’ 14. While both teams are well-rested, the Cowboys had additional preparation time and avoided the typical Thursday night disadvantage.

Emotional Factors: Dallas dealt with tragedy during the bye week following the death of defensive end Marshawn Kneeland. The 24-year-old second-round pick died from a self-inflicted gunshot wound, casting a shadow over the team’s preparation. How this impacts focus and motivation remains uncertain, though the Cowboys have emphasized honoring Kneeland’s memory through their performance.

Special Teams Instability: The Raiders fired special teams coordinator Tom McMahon following their Week 10 loss, during which kicker Daniel Carlson missed a game-tying 48-yard field goal and AJ Cole’s punt was blocked. The immediate aftermath of a coaching change can create adjustment periods.

Critical Factors Impacting Market Positioning

Injury Considerations

Geno Smith’s Health: The Raiders quarterback suffered a quad contusion in Week 10 and appeared to favor the leg following a fourth-quarter scramble. While Smith has been cleared to play, any limitation in mobility could significantly impact Las Vegas’ offensive capabilities. Smith’s ability to extend plays and convert third downs on the ground has been crucial to the Raiders’ limited success.

Dallas’ Offensive Line: The Cowboys have dealt with various injuries along the offensive line throughout the season but enter Monday night relatively healthy. This stability allows for improved run-blocking schemes and pass protection consistency.

Raiders’ Interior Line: With Jackson Powers-Johnson on IR and Dylan Parham questionable, rookie Caleb Rogers faces a trial by fire against Quinnen Williams. The mismatch in experience and physical tools could prove decisive in controlling the line of scrimmage.

Coaching & Strategic Considerations

Matt Eberflus’ Zone Schemes: The Cowboys’ defensive coordinator employs zone-heavy coverages designed to limit explosive plays and force offenses into methodical drives. These schemes historically perform well against conservative quarterbacks like Smith, who ranks below average in fourth-quarter performance and third/fourth-down conversions according to advanced metrics.

However, zone defenses can be vulnerable to patient, timing-based passing attacks and allow significant yards after catch. Smith excels in YAC generation when receivers find soft spots, and tight end Brock Bowers presents unique challenges with his route-running versatility.

Pete Carroll’s Offensive Philosophy: The Raiders’ head coach has emphasized establishing the run despite ranking last in the league in rushing efficiency. Carroll’s offensive identity centers on play-action effectiveness and controlling time of possession. Against Dallas’ vulnerable run defense, Las Vegas may find more success on the ground than their season-long statistics suggest.

Market Movement Analysis

The spread opened at Cowboys -3 and has moved to -3.5 at most major sportsbooks, with some books offering -4. This half-point movement indicates sharp money favoring Dallas, likely based on the perception that Williams and Wilson will provide immediate defensive improvement and the Raiders’ offensive limitations present exploitable matchups.

The total opened at 51 and has remained relatively stable at 50-51.5 across various books, suggesting balanced action on both sides. The slight downward movement may reflect concerns about Las Vegas’ scoring capacity given Smith’s injury and Meyers’ absence.

Betting Markets Breakdown

Spread Analysis: Cowboys -3.5

Current odds at bet105 and major sportsbooks position Dallas as a 3.5-point favorite, with alternative lines available from Cowboys -2 to Cowboys -5. The spread reflects market confidence in Dallas’ offensive superiority while acknowledging defensive vulnerabilities that could allow Las Vegas to remain competitive.

Supporting Dallas Coverage:

• The Cowboys rank 27th in offensive yards per game advantage over opponents this season (378.4 vs 397.4 allowed), but this gap significantly favors Dallas against a Raiders offense averaging just 293.6 yards per game
• Dallas has covered in 10 of their last 13 games as road favorites dating to 2022
• The Raiders have failed to cover in three consecutive games when receiving three or fewer points at home
• Williams and Wilson’s debuts could provide immediate impact against a patchwork Raiders offensive line

Supporting Las Vegas Coverage:

• The Raiders have covered in nine of their last 10 home games against teams with losing records
• Dallas’ road defense has allowed 33.2 points per game across five contests, significantly worse than their home performance (28.0 PPG)
• Short spreads in divisional-type rivalry games often stay within the number
• The Cowboys are 2-3 ATS on the road this season

The statistical trends reveal tension between Dallas’ offensive prowess and defensive deficiencies. Against NFL-average offenses, the Cowboys typically cover; against elite units, they struggle. The Raiders fall below average offensively, suggesting Dallas should control the game, but Las Vegas’ ability to slow the pace and limit possessions could keep the margin manageable.

Total Analysis: Over/Under 50-51.5

bet105 currently offers Over 50 at +101 and Under 50 at -115, with various books showing totals ranging from 50 to 51.5. This number sits significantly higher than the Raiders’ season average (31.4 combined PPG) but below the Cowboys’ average (60 combined PPG).

Supporting the Over:

• Dallas has gone Over the total in six of nine games (66.7%)
• The Cowboys’ last three road games have exceeded the total
• Las Vegas’ defensive vulnerabilities against quality offenses suggest Dallas will score 27-30+ points
• Historical MNF games featuring teams with losing records have averaged 49.8 combined points since 2020
• Both teams have shown susceptibility to explosive plays, with Dallas ranking 100th in EPA per pass on defense

Supporting the Under:

• The Raiders have gone Under the total in six of nine games (66.7%)
• Las Vegas has scored seven points or fewer in three games this season
• The Raiders’ offensive limitations (26th EPA per pass, 32nd EPA per rush) significantly hamper scoring potential
• Smith’s quad injury could limit mobility and third-down conversions
• Carroll’s ball-control philosophy aims to limit possessions and keep games low-scoring

The total presents interesting tension between Dallas’ offensive efficiency and Las Vegas’ scoring constraints. The projection models suggest Dallas scores 27-31 points with relative ease, meaning the total’s viability hinges on whether the Raiders reach 20-24 points. Given their offensive struggles, this threshold appears challenging but achievable against Dallas’ league-worst scoring defense.

Moneyline & Alternate Markets

bet105 offers Cowboys moneyline at -179 and Raiders at +157, reflecting approximately 64% implied probability of a Dallas victory. Alternative spreads provide value-seeking opportunities:

Cowboys Team Total: Over 26.5 (-121) / Under 26.5 (+103) The Cowboys’ offensive consistency suggests Over 26.5 presents value given Las Vegas’ defensive weaknesses.

Raiders Team Total: Over 23.5 (-104) / Under 23.5 (-113) This line accurately reflects uncertainty around Las Vegas’ scoring capability. The Under appears slightly favorable given the Raiders’ offensive limitations.

First Half Markets: Historical trends show Dallas averaging 15.2 first-half points on the road, while Las Vegas averages 10.8 first-half points at home. These metrics suggest first-half Unders and Cowboys first-half spreads deserve consideration.

Analytical Summary & Key Insights

The data reveals a matchup between a high-powered but defensively challenged Cowboys team and a fundamentally limited Raiders squad struggling on both sides of the ball. Several key insights emerge from comprehensive statistical analysis:

Offensive Mismatch: Dallas’ fourth-ranked offense faces a Raiders defense that, while respectable in certain metrics, lacks the personnel to consistently pressure Prescott or limit explosive passing plays. The Cowboys should control offensive possessions and generate scoring opportunities throughout the game.

Defensive Question Marks: Despite acquiring Williams and Wilson, expecting immediate transformation of the league’s worst scoring defense appears optimistic. The Raiders possess offensive weapons in Jeanty and Bowers capable of exploiting zone-coverage vulnerabilities, though Smith’s efficiency issues may limit their impact.

Pace and Possession: The strategic clash between Dallas’ up-tempo passing attack and Las Vegas’ ground-oriented possession game will significantly influence the game’s complexion. If the Raiders successfully establish the run and control clock, they can limit Dallas’ possessions and keep the game close. If Dallas builds an early lead, the Raiders lack offensive firepower to mount comebacks.

Market Efficiency: The current spread at Cowboys -3.5 appears to accurately reflect the competitive dynamics. Dallas should win, but the margin depends on defensive improvement that remains uncertain. The total at 50-51.5 seems slightly elevated given Las Vegas’ offensive limitations, though Dallas’ defensive struggles provide Over support.

For bettors seeking value, the statistical analysis suggests exploring alternative markets beyond the primary spread and total. Cowboys team total Over, first-half results, and player props centered around Dallas’ offensive weapons may present more favorable risk-reward profiles than the full-game spread. The Raiders’ offensive constraints limit their scoring ceiling, making Under-focused strategies worthy of consideration despite Dallas’ defensive vulnerabilities.

Ultimately, the data paints a picture of Dallas possessing clear advantages in talent and scheme, but questions surrounding defensive improvement and motivation following tragedy create uncertainty around margin of victory. Responsible bettors should consider position sizing carefully given the numerous variables affecting this matchup.

Explore competitive odds and comprehensive betting markets for Cowboys vs Raiders at bet105, where analytical insights meet comprehensive market coverage for Monday Night Football.