UFC 323 Main Card: Jan Blachowicz vs Bogdan Guskov Advanced Fight Analysis

Event: UFC 323 Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan
Date: December 6, 2025 at 10:00pm ET
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
Division: Light Heavyweight (205 lbs)

Fighter Comparison

Style and Attribute Profile

Jan Blachowicz

Striking Power        ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ 74 percent
Striking Volume       ▓▓▓▓▓▓ 3.42 SLpM
Striking Accuracy     ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ 49 percent
Defense               ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ 53 percent
Takedown Offense      ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ 65 percent
Takedown Defense      ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ 80 percent
Top Control           ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓  Elite
Durability            ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓  High
Cardio                ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓  Good
Polish Power          ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓  Always present

Bogdan Guskov

Striking Power        ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓  90 percent
Striking Volume       ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ 4.11 SLpM
Striking Accuracy     ▓▓▓▓▓▓ 45 percent
Pressure              ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓  High
Counter Threat        ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓  Dangerous
Takedown Defense      ▓▓▓▓▓▓  60 percent
Grappling Defense     ▓▓▓  Unproven at elite level
Cardio                ▓▓▓▓▓  Moderate
Durability            ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓  Strong early, fades late

Fighter Backgrounds

Jan Blachowicz

Jan Blachowicz remains one of the most respected veterans in the light heavyweight division. Known for his legendary “Polish Power,” Blachowicz brings a balanced skill set built around measured striking, effective counterpunching, strong takedown control, and underrated submission threats. While not the most explosive fighter in the division, Blachowicz excels through timing, precision, and patience. His left body kick, rear hand counter, and ability to read opponents over time make him a threat in all phases.

One of Blachowicz’s greatest assets is his defensive awareness. He rarely gets hit clean for long stretches, uses a high guard responsibly, and manages distance well. On the ground, he is exceptionally strong when securing top position. Fighters who underestimate his grappling have often been surprised by his strength, balance, and submission instincts. His rear naked choke threat in particular has emerged repeatedly late in fights when opponents fatigue.

However, age is a relevant factor. Blachowicz is no longer the same athlete who captured the title several years ago. His speed has declined, and his entries often come slower than they once did. When pressured aggressively, he can be backed up and forced into reactive exchanges. Still, his experience allows him to stay composed even against explosive opponents.

Bettor takeaway: Blachowicz wins through discipline, timing, well-rounded skill, and exploiting defensive gaps with counters or takedowns.

Bogdan Guskov

Bogdan Guskov enters UFC 323 as one of the division’s most dangerous knockout specialists. Sixteen of his eighteen wins come by knockout, and his striking is built around violent precision with both hands. He carries real power in every shot, particularly when opponents are pressured backward. Guskov thrives in brawling exchanges but also possesses clean technical mechanics when throwing straight counters. His finishing ability is not just raw aggression — it is targeted and efficient.

Guskov’s best weapon is his ability to force opponents into exchanges they do not want. He uses forward pressure, aggressive feints, and sudden bursts to collapse distance quickly. When opponents circle without purpose or attempt to reset repeatedly, Guskov traps them along the fence and unloads sequences of hooks and uppercuts that can end fights instantly.

The concern for Guskov is experience and defensive grappling. While he has shown durability and aggression, he has not consistently faced top-tier wrestlers or counter-wrestlers capable of forcing him backward or grounding him. Against composed veterans with strong clinch and takedown games, Guskov’s aggression can work against him. His takedown defense has holes, particularly against level-changing doubles and inside trips.

Bettor takeaway: Guskov wins through pressure, power, and forcing chaotic striking sequences early. KO/TKO is his clearest path.

Stat Comparison Table

Finish Type Profiles

Jan Blachowicz

KO/TKO      ████████████  31 percent
Submission  ██████████████  31 percent
Decision    █████████████████████  38 percent

Bogdan Guskov

KO/TKO      ████████████████████████████████  89 percent
Submission  ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░  0 percent
Decision    ████  11 percent

Historical Matchup Context

Experience vs explosiveness is the dominant theme. Blachowicz has repeatedly defeated aggressive knockout artists by slowing the fight down, countering their entries, and mixing in grappling. Guskov has overwhelmed opponents who retreat or lack the defensive structure to handle constant pressure.

Blachowicz thrives against power punchers who rely heavily on momentum. Guskov thrives against fighters who cannot punish pressure.

Round Finish Trends

Guskov is early danger. Blachowicz is late dominance.

Betting Trend Analysis and Market Behavior

The betting market opened with Jan Blachowicz as a slight favorite, but early public money pushed action toward Bogdan Guskov due to his violent finishing streak and highlight-reel knockout ability. Guskov is exactly the type of dangerous, power-heavy underdog that casual bettors flock toward. Anytime a fighter has an 89 percent knockout rate, the market reacts aggressively.

However, sharp bettors quickly corrected the line, leaning heavily back toward Blachowicz. There are three reasons why professionals favor Blachowicz:

• Experience against elite strikers — Blachowicz has beaten significantly better pure strikers than Guskov.
• Superior grappling and clinch strength — Guskov has yet to be tested consistently by high-level wrestlers.
• Cardio reliability — Blachowicz maintains composure and technical discipline deep into fights; Guskov fades.

The line stabilized with Blachowicz as a controlled favorite. The market respects Guskov’s knockout potential but sees Blachowicz as the more complete and reliable fighter across rounds.

Prop Market Breakdown

The props for this fight align cleanly with each fighter’s profile. Guskov is knockout dependent; Blachowicz has three legitimate paths: KO, submission, or decision. This creates a wide prop spectrum with strong value on both sides depending on how bettors approach volatility vs stability.

The props tell the story succinctly: Guskov early is dangerous; Blachowicz late is dominant.

Live Betting Angles

This matchup is highly readable in real time. Blachowicz is a veteran of 40+ fights, and his patterns are consistent. Guskov, as an explosive finisher, also shows extremely visible cues when momentum shifts.

Scenario 1: Guskov lands early pressure and forces Jan backward

If Guskov backs Blachowicz toward the fence in the opening minute and lands clean entries, his knockout probability spikes dramatically. Bettors should look for:

• Jan shelling high without firing back.
• Guskov cutting off exits instead of chasing.
• Jan exiting exchanges on a straight line — a major risk against a power puncher.

Scenario 2: Blachowicz begins countering and slowing the pace

This is the clearest signal of a Blachowicz takeover. When Jan starts timing Guskov’s entries and landing body kicks, the momentum shifts instantly. From here, Guskov becomes increasingly vulnerable.

Signals include:

• Guskov’s combinations becoming shorter.
• Reduced forward bursts.
• Jan mixing in level changes or clinch attempts.

Scenario 3: First clinch or takedown attempt

If Blachowicz initiates wrestling early, even if unsuccessful, it indicates the strategic direction of the fight. Guskov has struggled historically when forced to grapple or defend takedowns repeatedly.

If Jan gets Guskov down or secures extended clinch control, live bettors should shift heavily toward Blachowicz Inside Distance.

Market Heat Map

10,000 Fight Simulation Projection

The simulation model indicates a strong lean toward Blachowicz as the more complete fighter. Experience, defensive grappling, composure, and late-round control heavily influence his winning probability.

Interpretation: Blachowicz has more ways to win. Guskov has one — but it is a very dangerous one.

Risk Matrix

The risk dynamics overwhelmingly favor Blachowicz across minutes, but Guskov is exceptionally dangerous in moments.

Final Prediction

The matchup between Jan Blachowicz and Bogdan Guskov is a classic example of veteran composure and well-roundedness meeting youthful explosiveness and raw knockout power. Their styles collide in ways that produce extreme volatility early but increasing stability as minutes accumulate. This fight is a perfect representation of experience vs aggression, calculation vs chaos, and longevity vs momentum.

Bogdan Guskov’s danger cannot be underestimated. He carries some of the heaviest hands in the division and throws with conviction in every exchange. His offensive entries are explosive and designed to force opponents backward immediately. When he pressures cleanly, his mechanics are sharp, and his ability to overwhelm outmatched strikers is proven. Virtually all of his finishing success comes from trapping opponents against the fence and unloading unpredictable combinations, often ending fights before they can settle into rhythm.

But against a fighter like Jan Blachowicz, that pressure must be flawless. Blachowicz thrives when he has time to read patterns, identify openings, and slow the pace. His striking is not based on speed but on timing, precision, and discipline. Blachowicz has built a career on neutralizing explosive fighters by frustrating their rhythm, countering their rushes, and exposing their defensive gaps as the fight stabilizes. Guskov’s biggest liability is his defensive structure — when he overcommits, his chin is unprotected, and his feet square up. Against elite counterstrikers, this becomes a major vulnerability.

As soon as Blachowicz begins landing body kicks, jabs, and intercepting counters, the momentum shifts decisively. Guskov’s power is front-loaded. When he fails to secure early momentum, his output drops noticeably. His combinations shorten, his feints disappear, and his forward bursts become more predictable. This is where Blachowicz begins to impose his veteran savvy.

Grappling is the quiet but decisive factor in this matchup. Guskov has not faced a grappler as strong, as technical, or as experienced as Blachowicz. Jan does not need to chain wrestle — he only needs one clean takedown to begin dictating the fight. From top position, Blachowicz is suffocating. His top pressure is exceptional, his balance superb, and his submission instincts underrated. When opponents tire, Blachowicz becomes even more dangerous, using a strict positional approach that drains energy and exposes openings for chokes.

Simulation modeling overwhelmingly shows that if Blachowicz initiates even moderate grappling, the fight becomes extremely one-sided. Guskov is explosive, but his scrambles are flawed, and his defensive grappling is not robust enough to handle sustained pressure. Once forced to work off his back, Guskov’s finishing tools are dramatically reduced.

Durability also leans toward Blachowicz. While both men can be hurt, Blachowicz has historically handled big moments better. His recovery is strong, his decision-making under fire is elite, and he remains composed even after absorbing clean shots. Guskov, meanwhile, shows signs of deflation when his early efforts fail. He is a fighter built on momentum — and Blachowicz specializes in stealing momentum.

Ultimately, this matchup favors the veteran. Guskov has one clear path: land early and land huge. Blachowicz has several. His ability to win through countering, control, attrition, and tactical adjustments gives him the superior long-term edge. Once the adrenaline dump hits Guskov and the fight becomes more technical, Blachowicz’s experience takes over completely.

Prediction: Jan Blachowicz defeats Bogdan Guskov by Submission

Method Confidence: 67 percent
Overall Confidence: 62 percent

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Bettor Summary

• Blachowicz path: Slow the pace, counter effectively, wrestle when openings appear, dominate late through experience and composure.
• Guskov path: Force chaos early, trap Blachowicz on the fence, land power combinations before Jan finds rhythm.
• Most valuable props: Blachowicz Submission (+450), Blachowicz Decision (+225), Guskov KO (+150).
• Live angle: If Blachowicz initiates grappling or begins countering cleanly, his win probability spikes. If Guskov backs him up early, KO odds rise immediately.

Disclaimer

This analysis uses AI assisted statistical research alongside human analysis and editorial oversight. Despite verification efforts, data errors may occur. Readers should independently verify odds, fighter stats, and records before betting. Projections are analytical estimates, not guarantees.