UFC 323 Main Event: Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan Advanced Fight Analysis

Event: UFC 323 Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan
Date: December 6, 2025 at 10:00pm ET
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
Division: Bantamweight (135 lbs)

Fighter Comparison

Style and Attribute Profile

Merab Dvalishvili

Wrestling Pressure     ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓  Division-best
Pace & Output          ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓  Historic
Striking Volume        ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ 4.26 SLpM
Striking Defense       ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ 58 percent
Chain Wrestling        ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓  Elite
Top Control            ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓  Strong
Cardio                 ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓  Endless
Durability             ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓  Very High

Petr Yan

Boxing Fundamentals    ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓  Best at bantamweight
Counter Striking       ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓  Elite
Striking Accuracy      ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ 52 percent
Takedown Defense       ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓  68 percent
Grappling Reversal     ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓  Strong
Cardio                 ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓  High
Durability             ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓  Excellent
Fight IQ               ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓  Elite

Fighter Backgrounds

Merab Dvalishvili

Merab Dvalishvili enters UFC 323 as the most relentless wrestler in UFC history — a cardio machine whose pressure and volume break opponents physically and mentally. He holds the all-time UFC record for takedowns attempted and is statistically the highest-output wrestler the division has ever seen. Merab’s style revolves around chain wrestling, suffocating pace, and never allowing opponents time to breathe. Even when takedowns fail, they serve to drain opponents, disrupt rhythm, and force defensive reactions that set up the next wave.

Merab’s greatest strength is sustainability. His pace does not drop. His pressure does not fade. His ability to push a 5-round pace in a 3-round fight gives him built-in scoring advantages. Even his striking — once a weakness — has evolved into an effective tool for entering wrestling sequences. He now blends kicks, long-range jabs, and level-change feints into a seamless pressure rhythm.

His weaknesses are limited but notable. Merab does not carry knockout power, so he often requires extended control time or overwhelming volume to dominate rounds. Against elite defensive strikers with strong pivots and footwork, Merab can struggle to secure clean entries. He is also vulnerable to knees and uppercuts if level changes are mistimed.

Bettor takeaway: Merab wins through attrition, control, pace, and turning fights into wrestling marathons his opponents cannot sustain.

Petr Yan

Petr Yan remains one of the most technically gifted strikers in the UFC. His boxing combinations, defensive guard transitions, and counter-striking reads are among the most advanced in the sport. Yan is a rhythm fighter — he downloads opponents early, then punishes their patterns with precision. His ability to pressure without overextending allows him to maintain range while avoiding takedown traps.

Yan’s takedown defense is structurally strong, but his scrambling is even better. He rarely concedes long control sequences and is exceptional at returning to his feet. His hip pressure, frames, and inside control make him difficult to wrestle in the center of the cage. Offensively, Yan’s body-head combinations, intercepting knees, and pivots are uniquely suited to punish opponents who level-change repeatedly — a key factor against Merab.

The concern for Yan is volume pacing. Yan traditionally starts slow, building reads before shifting into high-output dominance in rounds two and three. Against Merab, any slow start can be catastrophic. Merab wins rounds early and often, and Yan may find himself fighting from behind unless he aggressively establishes defensive pivots from the opening bell.

Bettor takeaway: Yan wins through striking superiority, counter traps, and defending takedowns long enough to force Merab into extended striking exchanges.

Stat Comparison Table

Finish Type Profiles

Merab Dvalishvili

KO/TKO      ███████  15 percent
Submission  ████  5 percent
Decision    ██████████████████████████  80 percent

Petr Yan

KO/TKO      ████████████████  42 percent
Submission  █  3 percent
Decision    ████████████████  55 percent

Historical Matchup Context

Historically, volume wrestlers like Merab have given technical strikers major problems — even elite ones. But Yan represents a unique subset: strikers who defend takedowns well, punish level changes, and maintain output under pressure. Fighters who attempt to out-pace Yan usually pay for it in later rounds, where his reads sharpen and his accuracy improves.

However, Yan has struggled when forced backward for entire rounds. Merab’s ability to extend wrestling sequences even without securing clean takedowns is a statistical outlier. No bantamweight can match Merab’s pace. Few can stop Yan’s counters. This creates a rare high-intensity stylistic collision.

The core tension: Can Merab’s pace overwhelm Yan’s technique, or will Yan punish Merab’s entries sharply enough to break the cycle?

Round Finish Trends

This matchup rarely ends early — both men are historically durable and rely heavily on winning minutes rather than singular moments.

Betting Trend Analysis and Market Behavior

The betting market for Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan has behaved exactly as analysts expected: sharp money on Merab early, public money pushing Yan late, and a final line settling near competitive but justified favoritism toward the Georgian pressure machine. Merab represents one of MMA’s most repeatable, low-variance winning styles: relentless takedown attempts, endless pace, and positional control that never truly allows opponents to reset. Bettors who prioritize reliability and round-winning structure gravitate toward him immediately.

Yan, however, remains a beloved figure among public bettors. His highlight-reel striking, championship pedigree, and reputation for late-fight rallies make him attractive to casual bettors who value clean technique over grinding wrestling. Yet deeper statistical analysis shows that Yan’s tendency to start slow is a major liability in a matchup where Merab historically dominates round one by overwhelming volume alone.

Where the line ultimately settled reflects the core analytical tension: Merab is more likely to win rounds consistently, but Yan is more likely to produce fight-altering moments. Books priced this accordingly, giving slight but meaningful lean toward the pace-and-pressure specialist.

Prop Market Breakdown

This fight features one of the most polarized prop distributions on the entire UFC 323 card. Both fighters win overwhelmingly by decision, but for entirely different reasons: Merab because he drowns opponents with volume, Yan because he out-strikes and out-adjusts them with clean technique across rounds.

Merab decision is the single strongest prop on the board. Yan KO is the high-risk, high-reward angle.

Live Betting Angles

This fight may be the most live-bet-friendly matchup of UFC 323. Merab and Yan display extremely predictable cues that reveal who is taking over — usually by minute three of round one.

Scenario 1: Merab’s Entries Land Early

If Merab is able to consistently collapse distance and force Yan onto the back foot, Yan enters his least effective phase. Even failed takedowns matter. Merab’s approach is cumulative — every attempt drains Yan’s hips, lowers his stance, and forces defensive reactions that prevent Yan from setting up counters.

Live signals for Merab dominance include:

• Yan backing straight toward the fence.
• Merab completing mat returns even after failed shots.
• Yan switching stances out of necessity rather than strategy.
• Merab landing clean upper-body ties or body locks.

If these appear early, Merab decision becomes an extremely high-value live entry.

Scenario 2: Yan Establishes Counter Traps

Yan beats wrestlers by timing them. If Yan begins landing intercepting knees, uppercuts, or jabs as Merab level-changes, he can force Merab to reset frequently — which disrupts Merab’s rhythm-based pressure and takedown chains.

Key Yan indicators:

• Merab hesitating mid-entry.
• Yan pivoting off the cage consistently.
• Yan landing to the body and forcing Merab to retreat momentarily.
• Merab shooting from too far outside.

If Yan lands cleanly early, Yan KO becomes a live threat.

Scenario 3: Late-Round Momentum Shifts

Yan historically builds momentum as fights progress. His round-to-round adjustments and increasing accuracy late are among his trademarks. Merab, however, is uniquely resistant to momentum shifts because his game is not timing-based — it is volume- and pace-based. His cardio does not collapse.

Live bettors should watch for:

• Yan stuffing takedowns in clusters.
• Merab becoming less willing to shoot after absorbing counters.
• Yan controlling the center for more than one minute consecutively.

If Yan controls the center consistently by round two, the live line becomes far closer than pre-fight expectations.

Market Heat Map

10,000 Fight Simulation Projection

The simulation model produced one of the clearest statistical outcomes of the entire event. While the fight is competitive in exchanges, Merab’s overwhelming pace and ability to secure round-winning sequences in every simulation category gave him a notable edge.

Interpretation: Merab’s round-winning reliability heavily outweighs Yan’s technical striking advantages across a large sample size.

Risk Matrix

Yan is the more technical fighter — Merab is the less forgiving matchup. Style clash creates a high-output, high-score differential fight.

Final Prediction

The bantamweight showdown between Merab Dvalishvili and Petr Yan is one of the clearest examples of pace versus precision, chaos versus structure, and volume wrestling versus elite counter striking. Both men are among the best in the world at what they do, but their strengths intersect in ways that create unavoidable clashes. This is not a matchup where either fighter can avoid the other’s game entirely. Instead, the winner will be the one who imposes their rhythm for longer stretches.

Merab’s path is obvious but incredibly difficult to stop. His pace is unmatched in the division. His wrestling is not about clean finishes but about forcing reactions, breaking balance, and continuously dragging opponents into defensive sequences. Even when he fails to complete takedowns, Merab wins exchanges through pressure alone. Opponents spend minutes fighting wrists, hips, underhooks, or mat returns. These are not neutral positions. They are scoring opportunities and cardio weapons.

Yan’s path is narrower but potentially more dangerous. He is one of the best readers and adjusters in the sport. He punishes level changes with precision. His body shots and intercepting knees are tailor made for wrestling-heavy opponents. When Yan controls the center and forces Merab to shoot from distance, he gains immediate leverage. His defensive wrestling is underrated, and his ability to stand up quickly or reverse positions limits Merab’s ability to secure long control stretches.

However, Yan’s biggest issue here is time. Yan is a notoriously slow starter who uses early minutes for data collection. Against Merab, this is a catastrophic liability. Merab does not give opponents space to read him. He does not present a pattern that can be decoded. His chaos is deliberate and designed to break fighters before adjustments can occur. Yan winning round one is unlikely. Yan winning round two requires clean pivots and flawless takedown defense. Yan winning round three requires halting Merab’s pace entirely, something no opponent has ever accomplished.

Key exchanges occur not in the shots themselves but in the second and third attempts of each chain. If Yan defends the first takedown but concedes angle or position, Merab flows into the next entry. If Yan frames and circles out early, he creates counter openings. The fighter who wins these micro transitions wins the fight.

Durability tilts this matchup even further. Both men are extremely durable, but Yan’s willingness to absorb early strikes and pressure becomes less viable when opponents can score with takedowns and control. Merab rarely absorbs sustained damage because opponents rarely have time to plant their feet. Yan’s best power shots require planting, pivoting, or catching entries cleanly, and Merab’s non-stop level changes limit those windows.

The simulation model strongly reflects these dynamics. In scenarios where Yan stops takedowns cleanly in the first two rounds, he begins taking over striking exchanges. But those scenarios occur at a significantly lower frequency than those where Merab secures enough control to dominate scorecards. While Yan is the more polished fighter technically, Merab is the less forgiving matchup strategically. Yan must be nearly perfect. Merab only needs to be himself.

Yan has real upset potential, especially with counters to level changes and late-fight surges. But the more reliable, repeatable, and cardio-proof path belongs to the relentless Georgian contender.

Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili defeats Petr Yan by Decision

Method Confidence: 70 percent
Overall Confidence: 65 percent

For the best odds on UFC fights like Dvalishvili vs Yan, visit bet105, the top sportsbook with reduced juice, fast crypto payouts, and sharp friendly limits.

Bettor Summary

• Merab path: Chain wrestling, relentless pace, fence pressure, mat returns, cumulative control, and outworking Yan across all three rounds.
• Yan path: Counter striking, intercepting knees, punishing level changes, stuffing takedowns in clusters, and controlling the center long enough to force a standup battle.
• Most valuable props: Merab Decision (-110), Fight Goes Distance (-245), Yan KO (+375).
• Live angle: If Merab corners Yan early or completes even partial takedowns in round one, his probability spikes. If Yan forces resets and lands counters early, the fight tightens considerably.

Disclaimer

This analysis uses AI assisted statistical research alongside human analysis and editorial oversight. Despite verification efforts, data errors may occur. Readers should independently verify odds, fighter stats, and records before betting. Projections are analytical estimates, not guarantees.