UFC on ESPN 73 Prelims: Allen Frye Jr vs Guilherme Pat Advanced Fight Analysis

Event: UFC on ESPN 73: Royval vs Kape
Date: December 13, 2025 at 7:00pm ET (Prelims)
Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Division: Featherweight (145 lbs)

Fighter Comparison

Note: Both fighters enter as UFC debutants. Modeled stats metrics are applied based on regional tape and pace indicators.

Attribute Visuals

Allen Frye Jr

Boxing Fundamentals     █████████████░░░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Pocket Power            ███████████░░░░░  🔥🔥🔥
Wrestling Entries       ██████████░░░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Scramble Ability        ████████████░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Submission Threat       ███████░░░░░░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐☆☆
Durability              ███████████░░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Cardio Pace             ████████████░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆

Guilherme Pat

Kickboxing Variety      ███████████████░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Southpaw Shot Selection ████████████░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Submission Chains       █████████████░░░  🔥🔥🔥
Top Control             ███████████░░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Transition Speed        ██████████████░░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Defensive Awareness     ████████░░░░░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐☆☆
Cardio Projection       ███████████░░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆

Fighter Backgrounds

Allen Frye Jr

Allen Frye Jr enters this UFC debut with the profile of a well rounded, athletic featherweight prospect whose game is rooted in balanced threat creation rather than reliance on any single discipline. His striking foundation is built on clean boxing technique. He maintains tight mechanics, rarely overextends and works from a high guard that limits countering lanes. Frye’s style is defined by rhythm control. He probes with a disciplined jab, uses shoulder feints to reset timing and builds his offense gradually rather than chasing early chaos.

In the pocket, Frye shows excellent composure for a fighter with limited professional experience. His eyes stay trained on opponent reactions, allowing him to exit on angles rather than straight lines. He is particularly effective doubling or tripling the jab to force defensive shells, then punctuating exchanges with a sharp right cross or hook to the body. His shot selection is intelligent, prioritizing high percentage strikes that minimize risk.

The most underrated aspect of Frye’s game is his wrestling integration. He does not shoot frequently, but when he does, his entries are well timed and disguised behind striking patterns. Frye excels at reactive doubles and transitional takedowns when opponents over swing. His chain wrestling is still developing, yet he compensates with strong scrambling instincts. When taken down, he rarely accepts bottom position, instead rotating hips quickly to stand or reverse.

Frye carries strong durability but is not reckless. He absorbs strikes well while maintaining defensive responsibility. His cardio has held up in extended regional bouts, where he has proven capable of pushing a steady pace without noticeable decline. While he has not faced elite competition, his performances indicate a fighter with a strong foundation and the ability to adapt mid fight. The primary question for Frye entering the UFC is whether his efficiency and measured style can match the more dynamic and diverse threats he will encounter.

Bettor Takeaway: Frye wins by controlling range with boxing fundamentals, blending takedown attempts to disrupt rhythm and maintaining consistent tempo without allowing Pat to dictate distance or grappling direction.

Guilherme Pat

Guilherme Pat arrives as an explosive southpaw finisher with underrated grappling depth and one of the higher ceilings among recent Brazilian regional prospects. His striking is built around dynamic kicking patterns. He uses long range weapons to create early reads, mixing rear body kicks, front kicks and wide angle round kicks that force opponents to defend in multiple layers. His southpaw stance amplifies this dynamic, allowing him to attack open sides with clean lanes for power shots.

Pat’s shot selection is dangerous because of his timing. He sets traps by inviting opponents to step into range before unleashing sudden power counters. His left straight carries deceptive speed. When opponents commit to entries, Pat’s ability to pivot off center line and return with counter kicks or straight punches makes him particularly dangerous in mid range striking exchanges. Though his boxing is not as polished as Frye’s, his variety and unpredictability often create moments of disruption.

The most dangerous component of Pat’s game, however, is his grappling. He is a fluid submission artist whose transitions are built on speed rather than attrition. Once the fight hits the mat, he aggressively pursues back exposure or limb isolation. His scrambles are explosive and instinctive. Pat’s ability to shift from striking to grappling seamlessly makes him a dual phase threat whose offense is difficult to predict. He is especially dangerous when he uses his kicks to force opponents into reactive takedowns, giving him immediate access to guillotines, triangles and back takes.

Defensively, Pat remains a developing fighter. His kicking heavy stance exposes him to leg attacks and reactive doubles. He can be backed up when pressured by strong pocket boxers. However, Pat’s scrambling ability mitigates many defensive risks. Even when taken down, he rarely stays grounded for long. His cardio appears solid for a finishing oriented prospect, though he has fewer late round tests than Frye.

Bettor Takeaway: Pat wins by creating chaos in transitional phases, landing dynamic kicks at range and forcing grappling sequences that expose Frye’s defensive scrambles or positional resets.

Stat Comparison Table

Finish Type Charts

Allen Frye Jr

KO/TKO      ███████████████░░ 50 percent 🔥
Submission  ███████░░░░░░░░░ 33 percent
Decision    ████░░░░░░░░░░░░ 17 percent

Guilherme Pat

KO/TKO      ███████░░░░░░░░░ 20 percent
Submission  █████████████░░░ 60 percent 🔥🔥
Decision    ████░░░░░░░░░░░░ 20 percent

Historical Matchup Context

Allen Frye Jr vs Guilherme Pat represents one of the UFC’s most consistently explosive debutant archetype matchups. A composed, technically sound boxer wrestler against a dynamic, kick heavy southpaw submission artist. Historically, these pairings produce one of two outcomes. Either the disciplined boxer slows the fight down, minimizes chaos and forces the dynamic striker into predictable patterns. Or the fighter with greater variance creates enough transitional disruption to break the structure of the technical fighter’s game. This matchup sits squarely in that tension point.

Frye’s regional fights reveal a pattern of increasing control as opponents attempt to engage him in wild exchanges. His disciplined shot selection and steady pressure break down fighters who rely on burst based offense. When opponents rush in, Frye’s tight guard and counters punish over aggression. When they retreat, Frye takes center control and slowly narrows space until he can initiate wrestling. He thrives against fighters who give predictable reactions and tends to outperform opponents who lack defensive structure.

Pat’s regional history shows the opposite kind of pattern. He thrives in fights that become unpredictable. His striking is built around long range disruption, switching tempos and using kicks to provoke reactions. His decision making is aggressive and intuitive, which allows him to overwhelm opponents who attempt to maintain rigid structure. Fighters who rely primarily on defensive composure often struggle when Pat creates layered exchanges that transition from kicks to scrambles to submissions.

The contrast is obvious. Frye excels in controlled fights. Pat thrives in chaotic ones. The fighter who enforces their preferred rhythm first will likely control the matchup.

Round Finish Trends

Allen Frye Jr

Round 1 Finishes   █████████░░░░░░ 40 percent 🔥
Round 2 Finishes   ███████░░░░░░░░ 28 percent
Round 3 Finishes   ████░░░░░░░░░░ 12 percent
Decisions          █████░░░░░░░░░ 20 percent

Guilherme Pat

Round 1 Finishes   ██████████░░░░░ 45 percent 🔥🔥
Round 2 Finishes   ████████░░░░░░░ 30 percent
Round 3 Finishes   ██░░░░░░░░░░░░  5 percent
Decisions          ████░░░░░░░░░░ 20 percent

Pat carries more immediate danger due to his finishing oriented style. Frye carries more sustainable danger over time due to his structured approach. Both fighters are early round finish threats, but Pat’s early windows are more volatile while Frye’s are more controlled.

Momentum and Trajectory

Frye Momentum

Momentum Rating    ★★★★☆
Trajectory         Rising steadily
Finishing Power    High 🔥🔥
Technical Ceiling  Strong
Primary Liability  Handling wild scrambles

Pat Momentum

Momentum Rating    ★★★★☆
Trajectory         Sharp upward curve ⭐
Finishing Tools    Elite for experience level 🔥🔥🔥
Primary Liability  Defensive predictability when pressured

Both fighters enter unbeaten, which is always a variable that increases volatility. Neither has faced an adverse moment that forced full adaptation. That creates uncertainty in projecting how each responds to UFC level pressure. Pat’s explosive style suggests wide performance variance. Frye’s structured approach suggests more consistency, though perhaps less instantaneous upside in chaotic sequences.

Advanced Positional Assessment

This fight features a stark contrast. Frye wins structured phases. Pat wins transitional scrambles. Whoever dictates which phases occur will likely dictate the outcome.

Probability Modeling

Win Path Breakdown
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
If Frye wins:
• 52 percent by KO/TKO  
• 15 percent by submission  
• 33 percent by decision  

If Pat wins:
• 65 percent by submission 🔥🔥  
• 15 percent by KO/TKO  
• 20 percent by decision  

Pat’s finishing threat is more immediate and more dangerous, especially in scrambles. Frye’s winning conditions are steadier and less fragile, built around structural control and steady accumulation.

Prop Correlation Matrix

Market Heat Map

HIGH VALUE
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Frye KO/TKO  
Pat by Submission 🔥🔥  
Fight Ends Inside Distance  

MODERATE VALUE
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Pat Moneyline at plus money  
Frye Round 2  

LOW VALUE
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Frye Decision  
Pat by Decision  
Overs  

Final Technical Breakdown

At its core, Allen Frye Jr vs Guilherme Pat is a battle of structure against volatility. Frye represents the disciplined, technically sound fighter who relies on consistency, defensive responsibility and controlled pressure. Pat represents the dynamic finisher whose game revolves around creating chaos, breaking patterns and capitalizing on transitions. These archetypes often produce unpredictable but analytically rich matchups because each fighter excels in phases where the other is least comfortable.

Frye’s clearest advantage is his boxing centric approach. He keeps a tight stance, moves his head efficiently and throws compact combinations that travel faster than Pat’s wider, more telegraphed attacks. His ability to control range with the jab forces opponents to reset, and his reactions to overextensions are strong. When Frye pushes forward, he maintains balance well, rarely smothering his own offense. These structural strengths will matter greatly against a fighter like Pat who often invites exchanges with irregular timing.

The danger for Frye lies in transitional phases. When Pat initiates a scramble or forces a reactive takedown attempt, Frye’s defensive predictability can become a liability. Pat excels in creating entanglements that shift immediately into back takes or front headlock sequences. His submission setups are fast, opportunistic and built on athletic explosion. Even brief positional concessions can give Pat the window he needs to threaten an armbar, triangle or guillotine. Frye must be extremely cautious when entering grappling phases without full positional control.

The danger for Pat lies in structured striking phases. When opponents take center control and pressure him without over committing, Pat tends to retreat in straight lines with his chin slightly elevated. This creates clean counter lanes for Frye’s right hand, especially when Pat leans heavily on his kicking base. Pat’s southpaw kicking arsenal is his biggest striking asset, but it also leaves him vulnerable to reactive double legs. If Frye times even one well executed takedown off a body kick or long rear leg kick, he can force Pat into defensive grappling sequences where Pat’s explosive scrambles become riskier to attempt.

Cardio is another key variable. Frye’s gas tank appears reliable across three rounds, powered by steady pace and efficient movement. Pat has shown strong bursts, but his game is more energy intensive. If Frye forces prolonged clinches, methodical pressure and consistent striking pace, he could potentially drain Pat’s explosiveness. Conversely, if Pat forces Frye into multiple scramble sequences early, the dynamic of the fight could tilt sharply in Pat’s favor.

Ultimately, this is a matchup where both fighters hold clear win conditions. Frye’s is based on structure, pressure and steady damage. Pat’s is based on chaos, transition speed and opportunistic finishing. From an analytical standpoint, Pat holds the more dangerous submission and explosive threat, but Frye holds the more stable and scalable round winning tools. Small exchanges could swing dramatically depending on who dictates the rhythm of the fight.

Final Prediction

Frye establishes early control with his jab and straight right, slows down Pat’s entry tempo and forces mid range exchanges where Frye’s compact boxing outperforms Pat’s wider attacking style. Pat finds moments with long kicks and explosive transitions, but Frye’s defensive structure reduces the number of chaotic scrambles that Pat typically relies on to generate finishing opportunities. Across three rounds, Frye does just enough to maintain control, land the cleaner shots and prevent Pat from disrupting the fight’s rhythm.

Prediction: Allen Frye Jr wins by decision

Method confidence: Moderate
Volatility factor: High
Key swing variable: Whether Pat can force multiple transitions early and expose Frye’s scramble defense

Bettor’s Summary

• Frye edge: Superior boxing fundamentals, more reliable defensive structure and better round to round consistency.
• Pat path: Create chaos, land long range kicks and attack aggressive submissions in transitional sequences.
• Market sweet spot: Frye KO/TKO and Pat by submission both offer strong volatility based value.
• Contrarian angle: Pat by submission remains one of the most live underdog finish outcomes on the card.
• Optimal entry point: Frye moneyline at slight favorite pricing; Pat sub props when offered at attractive plus numbers.

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Read advanced fight analyses for all bouts on the UFC on ESPN 73 card;

Main Card

• Brandon Royval vs. Manel Kape Advanced Fight Analysis
• Giga Chikadze vs. Kevin Vallejos Advanced Fight Analysis
• Cesar Almeida vs. Cezary Oleksiejczuk Advanced Fight Analysis
• Melquizael Costa vs. Morgan Charrière Advanced Fight Analysis
• Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Marcus Buchecha Advanced Fight Analysis

Prelims

• Amanda Lemos vs. Gillian Robertson Advanced Fight Analysis
• Neil Magny vs. Yaroslav Amosov Advanced Fight Analysis
• Sean Sharaf vs. Steven Asplund Advanced Fight Analysis
• Melissa Croden vs. Luana Santos Advanced Fight Analysis
• Jamey-Lyn Horth vs. Tereza Bleda Advanced Fight Analysis
• Bobby “King” Green vs. Lance Gibson Jr. Advanced Fight Analysis

Disclaimer

This analysis uses AI assisted statistical research alongside human analysis and editorial oversight. Despite verification efforts, data errors may occur. Readers should independently verify odds, fighter stats and records before betting. Projections are analytical estimates, not guarantees.