UFC on ESPN 73 Main Card: Giga Chikadze vs Kevin Vallejos Advanced Fight Analysis

Event: UFC on ESPN 73: Royval vs Kape
Date: December 13, 2025 at 10:00pm ET (Main Card)
Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Division: Featherweight (145 lbs)

Fighter Comparison

Attribute Visuals

Giga Chikadze

Elite Kicking Arsenal       ███████████████░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ 🔥🔥🔥
Counter Striking            █████████████░░░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Long Range Distance Control ████████████░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Explosiveness               ██████████░░░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Takedown Defense            █████████░░░░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐
Clinch Resistance           ████████░░░░░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐
Cardio                      ███████████░░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Durability                  ███████████░░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Kevin Vallejos

Pressure and Volume         ████████████░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Scramble Grappling          ██████████░░░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Submission Chain Threat     █████████░░░░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐
Pocket Boxing               █████████░░░░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐
Kicking Offense             ███████░░░░░░░░░  ⭐⭐☆
Cardio Projection           ██████████░░░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Defensive Footwork          ███████░░░░░░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐
Durability                  ██████████░░░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Key Stylistic Edges
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Long Range Kicking         → Huge edge Chikadze 🔥🔥🔥
Pocket Exchanges           → Slight edge Vallejos
Grappling Chains           → Edge Vallejos
One Shot Threat            → Edge Chikadze
Scrambles                  → Edge Vallejos
Counters and Timing        → Big edge Chikadze
Late Fight Efficiency      → Edge Chikadze

Fighter Backgrounds

Giga Chikadze

Giga Chikadze represents one of the most refined kickboxers to ever compete in the UFC featherweight division. His background in Glory Kickboxing is evident in every movement. His signature “Giga Kick” — a liver searing body kick thrown from seemingly benign setups — is among the most damaging weapons in the division. But Chikadze is far more than a highlight reel striker. His ability to manage range, control tempo and disguise entries makes him one of the trickiest puzzle fighters for rising contenders to solve.

Chikadze excels in open space. His lateral movement and ability to deactivate pressure fighters via intercepting kicks make him uniquely effective in mid cage engagements. He maintains a tall stance but compensates with angle work and sharp reads on incoming level changes. Many fighters struggle with his mix of speed and placement, particularly when attempting takedowns from too far out. He punishes desperation with knees, uppercuts and switch kicks that land with precision.

His weaknesses have historically appeared in fights where opponents commit heavily to pace and wrestling. Persistent shooting, fence chains and layered pressure can make him uncomfortable. While his takedown defense is good, it is not elite. Against grapplers with strong mat return mechanics, Chikadze has been forced into defensive positions where his kick heavy style becomes muted. Still, he remains incredibly dangerous at every moment. Even tired or pressured, his counters retain power.

Cardio wise, Chikadze is efficient. He does not waste volume and instead prefers calculated, high impact shots. This allows him to conserve energy for powerful bursts later in fights. Experience is also a major factor. At 36, he has fought elite opposition and understands long fight pacing far better than most prospects. Vallejos is talented, but he has never fought a striker with this level of sophistication.

Bettor Takeaway: Chikadze wins by keeping the fight long, landing body kicks, punishing forward entries and forcing Vallejos into unfamiliar technical depth. His clearest path: pick apart Vallejos early, then build momentum through range control.

Kevin Vallejos

Kevin Vallejos arrives as one of the more promising young featherweights entering the UFC pipeline in recent years. A high paced pressure fighter with legitimate finishing upside, Vallejos combines youthful explosiveness with a surprisingly mature scrambling game. His fights thrive on creating chaos. He pushes volume, mixes kicks into boxing combinations and uses scrambles to wear opponents down physically and mentally.

Vallejos is not a traditional brawler. His aggression is structured around forward progression and layered attacks. He frequently mixes level changes into blitzes, using them more as feints than committed shots. When he does grapple, his transitions are fluid. He attacks the back quickly, maintains hooks aggressively and hunts submissions opportunistically. What makes him dangerous is his ability to immediately turn failed takedown attempts into striking exchanges where opponents are out of position.

Offensively, his body work stands out. Much like Chikadze’s kicks, Vallejos attacks the midsection early and often. This helps him build pace advantages as the fight progresses. If he can slow Chikadze’s movement even marginally, the matchup changes drastically. Vallejos thrives when opponents are forced into the pocket repeatedly.

The question for Vallejos is whether his pressure striking is ready for someone with Chikadze’s level of distance management. Vallejos has never faced an opponent with this degree of kicking precision. If he eats a few clean body kicks early, the fight can slip away rapidly. Defensively, Vallejos still squares up when recovering from missed shots or blitzes, exposing his midsection and head to counters. Against a sniper like Chikadze, these errors are particularly dangerous.

Bettor Takeaway: Vallejos wins by making this an attritional, pace driven fight. He must force Chikadze backward, crash the pocket consistently and create extended exchanges where youth, volume and pressure override technique.

Stat Comparison Table

Finish Type Charts

Giga Chikadze

KO/TKO      ███████████░░░░░ 60 percent 🔥
Submission  █░░░░░░░░░░░░░░   5 percent
Decision    ███████░░░░░░░░  35 percent

Kevin Vallejos

KO/TKO      ██████████░░░░░░ 46 percent
Submission  ██████░░░░░░░░░  31 percent 🔥
Decision    ████░░░░░░░░░░░  23 percent

Vallejos brings significantly more grappling upside, but Chikadze’s striking remains the highest quality offensive weapon in the matchup.

Historical Matchup Context

Giga Chikadze vs Kevin Vallejos is a classic case of elite kickboxing pedigree meeting surging young pressure fighter. Historically, fights like this often hinge on whether the prospect can safely navigate the layered kicking threats of a veteran specialist or whether the seasoned technician can maintain composure long enough to dismantle the less experienced forward mover.

Chikadze fits the mold of fighters like Edson Barboza, Yair Rodriguez and early Israel Adesanya — strikers whose range, angle management and kicking precision create enormous problems for pressure driven fighters. Opponents who attempt to blitz these fighters without setup often pay with rib damage, internal fatigue and sharp counter shots that halt forward progression.

Vallejos, on the other hand, represents a growing trend of hybrid pressure fighters who blend striking and scrambling to keep specialists uncomfortable. He fights more like a cross between Bryce Mitchell and Adrian Yanez — aggressive, adaptable and willing to mix phases fluidly. His greatest success has historically come against fighters who cannot punish his entries. Against a sniper like Chikadze, those entries become moments of extreme danger.

The archetype table highlights the central tension. Chikadze thrives against fighters who give him space, but Vallejos forces the opposite — pace, collisions and scrambles. Vallejos thrives against fighters who break under pressure, but Chikadze is unusually comfortable in high stress striking environments.

Round Finish Trends

Giga Chikadze

Round 1 Finishes   ███████░░░░░░░░ 30 percent
Round 2 Finishes   ████████░░░░░░░ 36 percent 🔥
Round 3 Finishes   ████░░░░░░░░░░░ 14 percent
Decisions          █████░░░░░░░░░░ 20 percent

Kevin Vallejos

Round 1 Finishes   ██████████░░░░░ 41 percent 🔥
Round 2 Finishes   ███████░░░░░░░░ 29 percent
Round 3 Finishes   ███░░░░░░░░░░░░ 10 percent
Decisions          ████░░░░░░░░░░░ 20 percent

Both fighters finish early. Chikadze typically finds his biggest damage windows in rounds one and two when timing is sharp. Vallejos, conversely, breaks fighters early through pace and pressure. This matchup is strongly coded toward volatility in the first ten minutes.

Momentum and Trajectory

Chikadze Momentum

Momentum Rating     ★★★★☆
Trajectory          Plateau/Rising
Finishing Threat    High 🔥
Consistency         Strong
Primary Liability   Defensive grappling cycles

Vallejos Momentum

Momentum Rating     ★★★★☆
Trajectory          Rising sharply
Finishing Threat    Very High 🔥🔥
Consistency         Moderate (scramble dependent)
Primary Liability   Defensive reactions at long range

Chikadze has more proven success against elite competition, while Vallejos is ascending rapidly but largely untested at this level of striking nuance. This creates an experience gap that could be decisive if Vallejos cannot force his preferred phase quickly.

Advanced Positional Assessment

Across phases, Chikadze dominates at distance, Vallejos dominates in chaos. Every minute of the fight is determined by who controls the transition between those domains.

Probability Modeling

Win Path Breakdown
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
If Chikadze wins:
• 67 percent by KO/TKO 🔥  
• 23 percent by decision  
• 10 percent by submission  

If Vallejos wins:
• 55 percent by KO/TKO  
• 30 percent by submission 🔥  
• 15 percent by decision  

The model leans toward Chikadze based on range superiority and precision striking. But Vallejos’s scramble driven danger and pace keep the upset scenario live, especially early.

Prop Correlation Matrix

Market Heat Map

HIGH VALUE
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Chikadze KO/TKO 🔥  
Fight Ends Inside Distance  

MODERATE VALUE
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Chikadze Moneyline  
Vallejos Submission  

LOW VALUE
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Overs  
Vallejos Decision  

Final Technical Breakdown

This fight is built on a razor-thin but profoundly important tactical divide. Giga Chikadze is one of the most dangerous long-range kickers the UFC has ever featured. Kevin Vallejos is one of the most promising young pressure fighters entering the featherweight landscape. Both fighters excel in opposite environments. Whoever controls the spatial terms of engagement controls the fight.

For Chikadze, the key variable is space. When he has time and room to operate, his kicking game becomes a systemic threat rather than a single weapon. His body kicks drain stamina rapidly. His head kicks hide behind feints. His intercepting kicks punish reckless forward motion. Against Vallejos, these traits become even more important. Vallejos is at his least effective from the outside, where his entries become predictable, linear and exposed. Chikadze’s ability to intercept level changes and blitzes with straight strikes or knees gives him one of the cleanest early fight advantages on the entire UFC on ESPN 73 main card.

However, Vallejos does not approach fights like traditional pressure fighters. He pressures in layers. He does not simply march forward. He changes levels, fakes shots, forces defensive reactions and then chains striking combinations behind those reactions. When he attempts takedowns, they are often done not with the intent to finish, but to initiate scrambles. In those scrambles he thrives, turning opponents’ hesitations into positional advantages or clean shots. Chikadze must stay ahead of Vallejos’s rhythm to avoid being dragged into these chaotic sequences.

Where the danger compounds for Chikadze is in the pocket. Vallejos carries a rare combination of physicality, composure and body-targeting efficiency. He rips midsection hooks with torque, and his ability to build combinations upward from the body to the head is one of his most dangerous tools. If Chikadze’s movement is slowed early — whether from calf kicks, body shots or forced scrambles — Vallejos’s pressure can snowball. The Giga Kick becomes harder to set up. The intercepting knees lose timing windows. The counters become rushed instead of measured.

Vallejos’s submission game adds another layer. While he is not a control grappler, he is a dynamic one. He locks onto the back instantly in transitional phases and attacks submissions in the chaos of repositioning. Chikadze has shown solid defensive grappling, but he prefers clarity. Vallejos forces ambiguity. If the fight becomes scramble dominant, Vallejos immediately becomes more competitive than the striking trajectory would suggest.

Yet, Vallejos has not faced anyone close to Chikadze’s striking sophistication. That gap is enormous. Vallejos relies heavily on opponents reacting poorly to his entries. Chikadze is not an over-reactor. He is a seasoned, composed striker with years of high-level experience reading engagements. Vallejos’s square entries leave his ribs, liver and solar plexus exposed in ways that Chikadze can exploit mercilessly. One clean Giga Kick to the body can flip the fight on its head instantly.

The fight ultimately boils down to whether Vallejos can compress space often enough to make Chikadze uncomfortable. If he can force 8 or more extended pocket exchanges per round, Chikadze’s chances diminish significantly. If Chikadze can limit Vallejos to single-exchange entries, punishing each one with sharp kicks and exits, Vallejos will bleed momentum and become increasingly reckless — which is exactly what Chikadze thrives against.

Momentum swings will be violent. Both fighters have finishing ability, but Chikadze’s finishing mechanics are far more refined. Vallejos’s finishing mechanics rely more on pressure and chaos. One punishes mistakes with precision. The other punishes hesitation with volume. In matchups like this, the precision striker historically wins unless he is overwhelmed early. Chikadze’s experience against elite strikers gives him a large tactical advantage heading into this main card showcase.

Final Prediction

Vallejos begins aggressively, mixing level changes and pressure, but Chikadze quickly disrupts the rhythm with body kicks and intercepting knees. The middle of round one becomes a tactical chess match, but Vallejos’s attempts to close distance result in repeated midsection damage. By round two, fatigue from body shots begins to appear, slowing Vallejos’s entries and exposing him to sharper counters. Chikadze capitalizes, landing a devastating liver kick that folds Vallejos and forces the referee to stop the bout.

Prediction: Giga Chikadze wins by KO/TKO

Method confidence: High
Volatility factor: High early, moderate late
Key swing variable: Vallejos’s ability to maintain pressure after absorbing body kicks

Bettor’s Summary

• Chikadze edge: Elite kicking arsenal, superior timing, massive range advantage and punishing body shot mechanics.
• Vallejos path: Crowd the pocket, mix scrambles, break rhythm and force high-volume exchanges.
• Market sweet spot: Chikadze KO/TKO, Fight Ends Inside Distance.
• Contrarian angle: Vallejos submission via scramble-based transitions.
• Optimal entry point: Chikadze KO props with Vallejos SUB as small hedge.

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Read advanced fight analyses for all bouts on the UFC on ESPN 73 card;

Main Card

• Brandon Royval vs. Manel Kape Advanced Fight Analysis
• Cesar Almeida vs. Cezary Oleksiejczuk Advanced Fight Analysis
• Melquizael Costa vs. Morgan Charrière Advanced Fight Analysis
• Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Marcus Buchecha Advanced Fight Analysis

Prelims

• Amanda Lemos vs. Gillian Robertson Advanced Fight Analysis
• Neil Magny vs. Yaroslav Amosov Advanced Fight Analysis
• Sean Sharaf vs. Steven Asplund Advanced Fight Analysis
• Melissa Croden vs. Luana Santos Advanced Fight Analysis
• Allen Frye Jr. vs. Guilherme Pat Advanced Fight Analysis
• Jamey-Lyn Horth vs. Tereza Bleda Advanced Fight Analysis
• Bobby “King” Green vs. Lance Gibson Jr. Advanced Fight Analysis

Disclaimer

This analysis uses AI assisted statistical research alongside human analysis and editorial oversight. Despite verification efforts, data errors may occur. Readers should independently verify odds, fighter stats and records before betting. Projections are analytical estimates, not guarantees.