Arbitrage vs. Value Betting – Which Strategy Should You Use?
As the global sports betting industry continues to surge – with estimates projecting the market to surpass $180 billion
As the global sports betting industry continues to surge – with estimates projecting the market to surpass $180 billion by 2030 – bettors are increasingly turning to smarter, more data-driven strategies. Gone are the days when casual intuition could beat the books. Now, concepts like arbitrage betting and value betting (EV betting) dominate the conversation for serious punters.
Both strategies aim to extract long-term profits from sportsbook odds, but they differ drastically in their approach, risk, and time horizon. In this article, we’ll compare the two head-to-head, help you understand which suits your style, and explain how a modern sportsbook like bet105 fits into this equation.
What Is Arbitrage Betting?
Arbitrage betting – often shortened to arbing – is a method where bettors place bets on all possible outcomes of an event across different sportsbooks to guarantee a profit, regardless of the result. This is possible because odds vary slightly between bookmakers, especially in fast-moving or low-liquidity markets.
Let’s say:
- Bookmaker A offers 2.10 for Team A to win
- Bookmaker B offers 2.10 for Team B to win
By calculating optimal stake sizes, a bettor can split bets across both books and lock in a small profit. Most arbitrage opportunities offer profits between 1% and 5%, though high-frequency betting can accumulate meaningful gains.
However, arbing isn’t without its trade-offs. These include:
- Accounts getting limited or closed (many books flag consistent arbitrage behavior)
- Constant odds monitoring or paid software to detect opportunities
- Limited scalability unless you use multiple accounts, VPNs, and stealth tactics
Despite this, for low-risk bettors seeking predictable gains, arbitrage betting remains a compelling strategy.
What Is Value Betting (Positive EV Betting)?
Value betting – or positive expected value (EV) betting – is a long-term betting approach where you only place wagers when the implied probability offered by the sportsbook is lower than the actual probability of the event happening. The idea is not to win every bet, but to consistently bet when there’s statistical edge.
Example:
- Sportsbook offers odds of 3.00 (33.3%) for an outcome
- Your data/model/line-shopping suggests the true probability is 40%
→ This is a positive EV bet.
Unlike arbitrage, which guarantees profit per event, EV betting works over hundreds of bets. You’ll encounter variance – including losing streaks – but if the expected value is consistent and you apply proper bankroll management, you should end up profitable.
Key elements of value betting include:
- Understanding probabilities and implied odds
- Using tools like RebelBetting, OddsJam, or OddsBoom
- Tracking ROI, closing line value (CLV), and managing emotions during downswings
It’s popular with sharper, more patient bettors who want scalable long-term success and are comfortable with some risk.
Arbitrage vs. Value Betting: Head-to-Head
While both strategies exploit inefficiencies in bookmaker odds, they appeal to different types of bettors. Here’s how they compare:
| Feature | Arbitrage Betting | Value Betting (EV Betting) |
|---|---|---|
| Core Concept | Betting on all outcomes to guarantee a profit | Betting only when odds offer positive expected value |
| Risk Level | Near zero (if executed correctly) | Higher short-term risk, but profitable long-term |
| Profit Per Bet | Small (typically 1–5%) | Variable – can be high, but not guaranteed per bet |
| Variance | Very low | High – winning and losing streaks are common |
| Sustainability | Limited – accounts often flagged or restricted | More sustainable if done smartly and discreetly |
| Required Tools | Arbitrage calculators, fast odds monitoring tools | Odds comparison, value betting software, probability edge |
| Bookmaker Reaction | High risk of limits or bans | Depends on scale – can fly under the radar |
| Scalability | Hard to scale without many accounts | Easier to scale over time with bankroll growth |
| Appeals To | Risk-averse, disciplined bettors seeking consistent returns | Strategic bettors who accept variance for higher ROI |
| Time Horizon | Immediate returns per event | Profits realized over hundreds or thousands of bets |
Why bet105 Is Built for the Sharp Edge
Unlike many traditional sportsbooks that restrict profitable players, bet105 embraces sharp strategies. With crypto-first deposits, fast payouts, and access to competitive odds across major leagues and niche events, bet105 offers flexibility that appeals to both arbers and EV bettors.
Even if you’re running scripts or using third-party odds scanners, the platform won’t shut you down at the first sign of skill. For bettors who want to explore betting strategies without being babysat by restrictive T&Cs, bet105 is one of the rare options that treats bettors with respect.
For those transitioning from recreational to strategic betting, this makes bet105 a powerful launchpad.
Conclusion: Which Strategy Should You Use?
If you’re looking for consistent but small wins, are okay with managing multiple bookmaker accounts, and want to avoid variance – arbitrage betting is your style.
If you’re comfortable with some variance, willing to place hundreds of bets, and want to build sustainable long-term profits, then value betting (EV betting) is likely your better fit.
Both strategies require discipline and planning – but with tools, experience, and platforms like bet105, you can start executing smart, data-backed wagers that beat the average bettor over time.
FAQs
What’s the difference between arbitrage and value betting?
Arbitrage betting involves covering all outcomes for guaranteed profit. Value betting focuses on spotting mispriced odds and betting only when you have a mathematical edge.
Is arbitrage betting legal?
Yes – it’s legal in most jurisdictions. However, sportsbooks frown upon it and may restrict or close your account.
Can I combine both strategies?
Yes, many sharp bettors use arbitrage to maintain cash flow and EV betting to scale profits over time.
Do I need special tools?
For both strategies, you’ll need software or odds comparison sites to be efficient. Tools like RebelBetting, OddsJam, or OddStorm are essential.
