UFC on ESPN 73 Main Card: Cesar Almeida vs Cezary Oleksiejczuk Advanced Fight Analysis

Event: UFC on ESPN 73: Royval vs Kape
Date: December 13, 2025 at 10:00pm ET (Main Card)
Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Division: Middleweight (185 lbs)

Fighter Comparison

Note: Almeida is a world class kickboxing convert with limited MMA sample size. Oleksiejczuk is a young pressure striker whose game is built for early violence. Their statistical projections rely on combined UFC sample and external modeling.

Attribute Visuals

Cesar Almeida

Elite Kickboxing Technique   ███████████████░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ 🔥🔥
Distance Management          █████████████░░░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Counter Striking             ███████████░░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Defensive Footwork           ███████████░░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Takedown Defense             ███████░░░░░░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐
Grappling Offense            ███░░░░░░░░░░░░░  ⭐☆
Durability                   ███████████░░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Cardio                       ██████████░░░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Cezary Oleksiejczuk

Forward Pressure             █████████████░░░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ 🔥🔥
Pocket Power                 ████████████░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Body Shot Offense            ███████████░░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Clinch Physicality           ██████████░░░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Defensive Awareness          ███████░░░░░░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐
Grappling Defense            ███████░░░░░░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐
Scramble Ability             █████████░░░░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐☆
Cardio Projection            █████████░░░░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐☆

Key Stylistic Edges
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Technical Kickboxing     → Heavy edge Almeida 🔥🔥🔥
Forward Pressure         → Edge Oleksiejczuk
Pocket Exchanges         → Edge Oleksiejczuk
Clinching & Dirty Boxing → Slight edge Oleksiejczuk
Counter Precision        → Big edge Almeida
Grappling Threat         → Minimal impact for both
Late Fight Cardio        → Slight edge Almeida
Fight Ending Power       → Comparable; Almeida sharper, Cezary heavier

Fighter Backgrounds

Cesar Almeida

Cesar Almeida enters the UFC as one of the most decorated kickboxers to transition into MMA in recent years. A former Glory standout with elite level striking IQ, Almeida’s background features decades of high level experience managing distance, countering under pressure and applying layered striking patterns that MMA fighters rarely encounter at this level. His jab, rear kick and lead hook are all polished weapons, but what elevates him above standard kickboxing converts is his defensive discipline. Almeida rarely throws himself off balance, rarely overcommits and almost never exits an exchange without an intentional angle.

Unlike many kickboxing specialists entering MMA, Almeida already demonstrates impressive pocket composure. He does not panic when pressured. Instead, he uses natural pivots and tight defensive frames to transition opponents past the center line. His counter left hook, in particular, becomes a fight changing weapon against aggressive forward movers. Combined with his strong leg kick arsenal, Almeida can gradually dismantle opponents who rely heavily on linear pressure.

The question mark in his profile is grappling. Although difficult to take down in open space, Almeida has limited experience defending chained wrestling attempts or prolonged clinch wrestling. However, against an opponent like Oleksiejczuk — who is primarily a striker and not a dedicated wrestler — this vulnerability may be far less relevant. Almeida’s defensive footwork reduces the frequency of level change attempts, and his striking is vastly superior when he operates at range.

Cardio is another subtle strength. Almeida’s years of kickboxing competition built an efficient energy management system. He does not waste movements and rarely throws at unsustainable volumes. That allows him to maintain sharpness deeper into fights than many pressure fighters expect. Given Oleksiejczuk’s tendency to fade slightly after fast starts, cardio and battle pacing become meaningful edges for Almeida.

Bettor Takeaway: Almeida wins by keeping the fight at kickboxing range, punishing entries with precision counters and forcing Oleksiejczuk into increasingly desperate forward bursts. If he maintains discipline early, the fight statistically bends in his direction as rounds accumulate.

Cezary Oleksiejczuk

Cezary Oleksiejczuk is a surging Polish prospect known for violent pressure, compact combination punching and an aggressive, high output style that breaks fighters mentally and physically. At just 23 years old, he already shows the kind of forward fighting confidence that is difficult to teach. His game revolves around forcing collisions — stepping into range early, ripping the body with hooks and uppercuts, and pushing opponents backward until they either wilt or make tactical mistakes that allow openings for power shots.

What separates Oleksiejczuk from typical brawlers is his defensive awareness inside the pocket. Although hittable at range, once he closes distance he slips and rolls effectively, keeping his chin under tight protection and countering with explosive combinations. His ability to chain three to five punch sequences without resetting often overwhelms opponents who expect simple one shot exchanges. When he hits the body, he does so with authority, and many of his stoppages have come from cumulative attrition rather than singular clean shots.

Clinching is another key component of Oleksiejczuk’s identity. He uses his physical strength well, framing into short elbows and uppercuts, and breaking posture with collar ties before ripping the body. Against Almeida, clinch entries will serve as an essential tool for slowing the kickboxer’s movement and forcing him into a dirtier, more chaotic fight than his preferred range striking battle.

The weaknesses in Oleksiejczuk’s profile are structural. His defensive footwork is limited, and his pressure requires constant forward momentum. If opponents can intercept him cleanly or pivot off the power side, he becomes significantly less effective. His grappling is functional but not threatening, and he relies heavily on finishing fights rather than winning sustained technical rounds. In matchups where footwork and timing matter — like this one — he must rely on pressure volume and durability to close the gap.

Bettor Takeaway: Oleksiejczuk wins by forcing Almeida into pocket exchanges, attacking the body relentlessly and keeping the pace high enough to disrupt Almeida’s rhythm. If he collapses distance consistently, this matchup becomes highly dangerous for the kickboxing ace.

Stat Comparison Table

Finish Type Charts

Cesar Almeida

KO/TKO      ███████████░░░░░ 63 percent 🔥
Submission  ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░   0 percent
Decision    ███████░░░░░░░░  37 percent

Cezary Oleksiejczuk

KO/TKO      █████████████░░░ 62 percent 🔥🔥
Submission  ██░░░░░░░░░░░░░  12 percent
Decision    █████░░░░░░░░░░  26 percent

This is one of the highest combined KO threat matchups on the card. Both men carry real stopping power, and both punish defensive lapses violently.

Historical Matchup Context

Cesar Almeida vs Cezary Oleksiejczuk represents an archetype the UFC middleweight division has seen many times: a seasoned, highly technical world class striker transitioning into MMA versus a young, aggressive pressure fighter whose game is tailored toward chaos, attrition and overwhelming pace. Historically, this archetype produces fights where either the technical kickboxer punishes predictable entries and controls the tempo, or the pressure fighter drags the technician into uncomfortable exchanges and forces attritional breakdowns.

Almeida’s style echoes classic counter oriented kickboxers who thrive on extension, angle creation and opponent mistakes. Fighters like Alex Pereira, Israel Adesanya and Giga Chikadze have shown how elite striking mechanics can disrupt even hyper aggressive opponents. But the caveat: pressure fighters with heavy pocket power, relentless forward motion and willingness to eat shots to land shots can destabilize technicians who lack strong wrestling or top control threats.

Cezary Oleksiejczuk represents the latter category. He has shown repeatedly — even on the regional circuit — that he does not need perfect technique to create momentum. His pressure generates exchanges on his terms. His body shot offense in particular tends to erode the movement of footwork dependent fighters. This matchup echoes classic pressure vs precision collisions: think Matt Brown vs Wonderboy (early portions), Chito Vera vs Dominick Cruz, or Poirier vs Gaethje before the technical adjustments. The question is whether Almeida can establish range discipline early enough to neutralize the chaos.

The archetype chart reinforces the tactical tension. Almeida can dominate at range. Oleksiejczuk can dominate in the pocket. The zone between those ranges determines who controls the fight.

Round Finish Trends

Cesar Almeida

Round 1 Finishes   █████████░░░░░░ 38 percent 🔥
Round 2 Finishes   ███████░░░░░░░░ 29 percent
Round 3 Finishes   ███░░░░░░░░░░░░ 12 percent
Decisions          █████░░░░░░░░░░ 21 percent

Cezary Oleksiejczuk

Round 1 Finishes   ███████████░░░░ 49 percent 🔥🔥
Round 2 Finishes   ████████░░░░░░░ 33 percent
Round 3 Finishes   ██░░░░░░░░░░░░  8 percent
Decisions          ██░░░░░░░░░░░░  10 percent

This matchup is extremely finish heavy. Both men tend to do their best work early. Oleksiejczuk in particular carries an extremely high round one finishing rate for the division. Almeida, while more patient, is still a threat early due to counter accuracy and power.

Momentum and Trajectory

Almeida Momentum

Momentum Rating     ★★★★☆
Trajectory          Ascending
Finishing Potential High 🔥
Round Winning       Strong
Primary Liability   Grappling in prolonged scrambles

Oleksiejczuk Momentum

Momentum Rating     ★★★★☆
Trajectory          Rising
Finishing Potential Very High 🔥🔥
Consistency         Moderate
Primary Liability   Defensive gaps at kickboxing range

Both fighters come into this matchup with strong trajectories, but Oleksiejczuk’s dangerous early fight profile collides sharply with Almeida’s slower, more disciplined approach. This creates one of the most volatile stylistic pairings on the main card.

Advanced Positional Assessment

This spread illustrates the fight’s core dynamic: an extremely clear distance based technical advantage for Almeida vs a brutally efficient pocket damage threat from Oleksiejczuk. Whoever dictates the range dictates the outcome.

Probability Modeling

Win Path Breakdown
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
If Oleksiejczuk wins:
• 78 percent by KO/TKO 🔥🔥  
• 14 percent by decision  
• 8 percent by submission  

If Almeida wins:
• 55 percent by KO/TKO  
• 10 percent by submission  
• 35 percent by decision  

The market modeling favors Oleksiejczuk’s early pressure and physicality, but Almeida’s technical superiority means the fight remains highly sensitive to early sequencing.

Prop Correlation Matrix

Market Heat Map

HIGH VALUE
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Oleksiejczuk KO/TKO 🔥  
Fight Ends Inside Distance  
Almeida KO/TKO  

MODERATE VALUE
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Over 1.5 Rounds  
Oleksiejczuk Moneyline  

LOW VALUE
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Almeida Decision  
Fight Goes the Distance  

Final Technical Breakdown

This fight hinges on a razor sharp stylistic contrast. Cesar Almeida is a technical purist — a lifelong elite striker who controls distance, angles and rhythm with far greater precision than the average UFC middleweight. Cezary Oleksiejczuk is a violent pressure mechanic — a fighter who weaponizes forward motion, overwhelm damage and body targeting to force technical fighters into messy, uncomfortable exchanges. The question is not who is better in a vacuum. The question is which fighter is more successful at imposing the environment where their style thrives.

Almeida’s game is built around striking geometry. He does not need speed advantages or unusual power to win exchanges. His superiority comes from positioning. He consistently maintains advantageous angles, which allow him to hit opponents while remaining just outside the danger zone. His jab, rear straight and lead hook become high value weapons because they are thrown from disciplined stances with minimal wasted motion. If this fight remains at kicking and long boxing range for extended periods, Almeida will accumulate both points and visible damage on a pressuring opponent like Oleksiejczuk.

The challenge is that Almeida’s defense is optimized for predictable striking patterns. Oleksiejczuk is not predictable. He is chaotic by design. His combinations do not follow textbook shapes. He often chains three or four punches that force overreactions, then lands the fifth with intent. Fighters who attempt to out technique him inside the pocket often find themselves overwhelmed by volume, body shots and surging momentum. Once Oleksiejczuk begins to close the cage and force Almeida toward the fence, the danger escalates rapidly. Almeida, like many kickboxers transitioning to MMA, does not defend well when his back is flat against the boundary. His pivots disappear, and his clean mechanics degrade under pressure.

Range transitions will decide the fight. If Almeida maintains long distance and mid range cleanly, he turns this fight into a technical sparring match where accuracy and composure dominate. If Oleksiejczuk consistently breaks into pocket range, he turns it into a brawl where durability, physicality and brute force pressure reshape the expected outcome. The middle layer — the transitional beats between long and short range — is where the fight will be won or lost. These beats determine whether Oleksiejczuk enters safely or whether Almeida hits him flush during the approach.

Cardio and pacing represent another layer of strategic tension. Almeida conserves energy, fighting with a precision that rarely leads to waste. Oleksiejczuk fights with a tempo that stresses opponents until they crack. Early rounds favor Oleksiejczuk if he can impose pace. Later rounds favor Almeida if he can blunt that early surge and throttle the fight back into a technical rhythm. Despite the knockout threat on both sides, this is also a matchup where cumulative body damage could play a decisive role. Oleksiejczuk targets the midsection relentlessly. Almeida’s ability to stay mobile in round two is directly tied to how many clean body shots he absorbs in round one.

This leads to a final strategic truth: Almeida’s power is sharp, Oleksiejczuk’s power is heavy. Sharp power punishes mistakes, heavy power creates them. If Oleksiejczuk is allowed to dictate pace, Almeida’s polished technique will be forced into survival patterns. Conversely, if Almeida controls the geometry, Oleksiejczuk’s aggression becomes a liability rather than an asset. Each fighter holds a win condition deeply suited to his nature. This is an archetypal striker vs pressure fighter matchup where technical superiority faces off against violent chaos, and chaos is the more consistent spoiler in fights where pocket defense is incomplete.

Final Prediction

Almeida opens strong, landing clean straights and controlling range with leg kicks. Oleksiejczuk absorbs the early shots, increases pressure and begins targeting the body aggressively. As the cage begins to close in late round one, Almeida’s pivots become more difficult to sustain. Oleksiejczuk forces pocket exchanges and lands heavy hooks to the ribs that slow Almeida’s movement. In round two, the pressure compounds, and Almeida’s defensive layers begin to collapse under volume. A combination to the body and head staggers Almeida, and Oleksiejczuk pours on a violent finishing sequence along the fence.

Prediction: Cezary Oleksiejczuk wins by KO/TKO

Method confidence: Moderate
Volatility factor: High
Key swing variable: Whether Almeida can maintain long range footwork beyond the first seven minutes

Bettor’s Summary

• Oleksiejczuk edge: Superior pressure, body shot volume, pocket power and early fight finishing rate.
• Almeida path: Maintain long range, punish entries with counters, manage pace and gradually control the rhythm.
• Market sweet spot: Oleksiejczuk KO/TKO, Fight Ends Inside Distance.
• Contrarian angle: Almeida KO/TKO off clean countering.
• Optimal entry point: Oleksiejczuk KO props; Almeida KO as asymmetric hedge.

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Read advanced fight analyses for all bouts on the UFC on ESPN 73 card;

Main Card

• Brandon Royval vs. Manel Kape Advanced Fight Analysis
• Giga Chikadze vs. Kevin Vallejos Advanced Fight Analysis
• Melquizael Costa vs. Morgan Charrière Advanced Fight Analysis
• Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Marcus Buchecha Advanced Fight Analysis

Prelims

• Amanda Lemos vs. Gillian Robertson Advanced Fight Analysis
• Neil Magny vs. Yaroslav Amosov Advanced Fight Analysis
• Sean Sharaf vs. Steven Asplund Advanced Fight Analysis
• Melissa Croden vs. Luana Santos Advanced Fight Analysis
• Allen Frye Jr. vs. Guilherme Pat Advanced Fight Analysis
• Jamey-Lyn Horth vs. Tereza Bleda Advanced Fight Analysis
• Bobby “King” Green vs. Lance Gibson Jr. Advanced Fight Analysis

Disclaimer

This analysis uses AI assisted statistical research alongside human analysis and editorial oversight. Despite verification efforts, data errors may occur. Readers should independently verify odds, fighter stats and records before betting. Projections are analytical estimates