UFC on ESPN 73: Jamey Lyn Horth vs Tereza Bleda Advanced Fight Analysis

Event: UFC on ESPN 73: Royval vs Kape
Date: December 13, 2025 at 7:00pm ET (Prelims)
Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Division: Women’s Flyweight (125 lbs)

Fighter Comparison

Note: Modeled stats metrics applied where no UFC sample exists.

Attribute Visuals

Jamey Lyn Horth

Pressure Striking     █████████████░░░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Clinch Strength       ██████████████░░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Counter Power         ███████████░░░░░  🔥🔥🔥
Grappling Defense     ████████░░░░░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐☆☆
Scramble Ability      ██████░░░░░░░░░░  ⭐⭐☆☆☆
Cardio                ████████████░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Durability            █████████████░░░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Tereza Bleda

Wrestling Pressure    █████████████████  ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ 🔥
Top Control           ██████████████░░░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Submission Threat     ██████████░░░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Athletic Explosion    ███████████████░░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Striking Development  ███████░░░░░░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐☆☆
Scramble Dominance    ████████████████░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Durability            ███████████░░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆

Expanded Fighter Backgrounds

Jamey Lyn Horth

Horth enters this matchup as a physically imposing pressure striker with a rugged, durable style built around forward momentum and breakaway power. Her approach is simple but effective. She moves in straight lines, cuts off angles and forces opponents into pockets where her right hand becomes a serious threat. Though not a volume striker, her aggression and willingness to absorb fire to land return shots make her dangerous in prolonged exchanges.

In the clinch, Horth is deceptively strong. She uses frames well and generates meaningful damage on breaks. Her ability to create short elbows and off rhythm punches during transitions allows her to steal moments even when opponents initiate grappling. She thrives in gritty exchanges where physicality wins over finesse. Horth’s best rounds often occur when she pushes opponents backward and forces reactions rather than allowing them to dictate rhythm.

Her grappling defense is functional at the first layer. She shows strong hips and good initial sprawl mechanics. However, she becomes more vulnerable to chain wrestling sequences. When opponents shoot repeatedly or transition from trips to doubles, she can be beaten to angles or forced to defend from compromised positions. Once grounded, her get up ability is determined by fatigue and timing. She tends to explode early in fights but slows if she is forced into multiple mat returns.

Horth’s durability is one of her defining traits. She maintains composure under pressure, rarely shows visible damage and continues moving forward even after absorbing clean shots. This allows her to win moments that many fighters would lose, especially against opponents who struggle with disruptive pressure. However, her offense is heavily dependent on getting the fight into her preferred range. Against elite grapplers or tall, rangy fighters who can stay outside, she sometimes struggles to create sustainable output.

Bettor Takeaway: Horth wins by creating chaos, stuffing early takedowns and forcing mid range exchanges. Her KO equity increases significantly if Bleda’s entries become predictable.

Tereza Bleda

Bleda enters with a more modern, grappling centric style designed around relentless pressure and top control. At only 23, she is already one of the division’s physically strongest wrestlers. Her game is built on constant forward movement, reactive level changes and long range entries that transition into high percentage takedowns. She excels at forcing opponents to give defensive reactions, then capitalizing with well timed body lock transitions and trips.

Her wrestling is not conventional chain wrestling. Bleda mixes techniques fluidly, blending judo based reaps, reactive doubles and inside trips depending on posture and distance. Her timing is one of her biggest assets. She is patient enough to wait for openings yet fast enough to punish opponents who overextend. Once she secures top control, she is extremely difficult to shake off. Her balance, hip pressure and technique allow her to maintain dominant positions for extended periods.

Bleda’s submissions are opportunistic rather than forced. She thrives in positions where opponents expose their back during scrambles or transitions. Her rear naked choke setups are smooth, and she often uses leg rides and wrist ties to advance control without sacrificing position. She is particularly effective against opponents who attempt explosive stands rather than strategic escapes.

The biggest gap in Bleda’s game remains her striking. Although improving, she can be stiff defensively. When backed up, she sometimes retreats in straight lines with her chin high. This creates opportunities for powerful strikers, especially those who throw straight punches. Her defense is functional but not polished. However, her striking does not need to be elite in this matchup. Its purpose is to disguise entries and create reactions for takedowns.

Bettor Takeaway: Bleda wins by wrestling early and often. Her control time, positional dominance and youth driven cardio advantages form a reliable path across three rounds.

Stat Comparison Table

Finish Type Charts

Jamey Lyn Horth

KO/TKO      ████████████████░░ 50 percent 🔥
Submission  █████░░░░░░░░░░░░ 17 percent
Decision    ███████████░░░░░░ 33 percent

Tereza Bleda

KO/TKO      ████████░░░░░░░░░ 29 percent
Submission  ████████░░░░░░░░ 29 percent 🔥
Decision    █████████░░░░░░░ 42 percent

Historical Matchup Context

Horth vs Bleda represents the same stylistic clash that has defined many modern flyweight matchups. A physically strong, forward driving striker on one side and a young, explosive pressure grappler on the other. Historically, these pairings hinge on early trends more than late ones. If the striker establishes range first, the grappler is often forced into increasingly desperate entries that create openings for damage. If the grappler establishes takedowns first, the striker becomes trapped in reactive sequences that snowball control time and scoring momentum. Almost every comparable UFC matchup between these archetypes follows one of those two trajectories, rarely anything in between.

Horth’s track record shows a clear pattern. Against opponents who give her space to strike, she builds momentum, confidence and damage. Her pressure striking becomes increasingly effective once she forces defensive reactions, allowing her to dictate the center and impose her pace. Against grapplers, however, her success is far more dependent on stuffing early takedowns. Once opponents begin chaining together attempts, her defensive predictability can be exploited. Bleda, as a chain wrestling prospect, fits neatly into the category that historically gives Horth issues.

Bleda’s track record shows a contrasting pattern. When she secures takedowns early, she often dominates fights through control time and positional advancement. Her youth, athleticism and judo influenced entries make her a difficult read for fighters not accustomed to dealing with unconventional grappling approaches. When she is kept at range, however, her striking inexperience becomes more noticeable. She tends to retreat in straight lines, can be tagged on exits and occasionally freezes when countered clean. Horth is precisely the type of physical striker who can exploit these defensive gaps.

The trend lines reinforce the central truth of this matchup. Croden type strikers give Bleda issues. But power based, forward pressuring strikers like Horth often fall into the range and timing that Bleda prefers for level changes and clinch entanglements.

Round Finish Trends

Jamey Lyn Horth

Round 1 Finishes   ████████░░░░░░ 30 percent 🔥
Round 2 Finishes   ██████░░░░░░░░ 20 percent
Round 3 Finishes   ███░░░░░░░░░░░ 10 percent
Decisions          ███████████░░░ 40 percent

Tereza Bleda

Round 1 Finishes   █████████░░░░░ 35 percent 🔥
Round 2 Finishes   ███████░░░░░░░ 25 percent
Round 3 Finishes   ████░░░░░░░░░░ 10 percent
Decisions          ██████████░░░░ 30 percent

Both fighters possess early danger windows. Horth’s early threat is striking oriented and becomes less consistent when forced backward. Bleda’s early threat is grappling oriented and becomes increasingly consistent as rounds progress. The deeper the fight goes, the more likely it is that Bleda’s grappling will dictate scoring.

Momentum and Trajectory

Horth Momentum

Momentum Rating    ★★★☆☆
Trajectory         Stable
Power Threat       High 🔥🔥
Durability Trend   Reliable
Primary Liability  Takedown repetition fatigue

Bleda Momentum

Momentum Rating    ★★★★☆
Trajectory         Rising ⭐
Grappling Form     Very Strong 🔥🔥🔥
Cardio Stability   High
Primary Liability  Defensive exits in striking

Horth is a known quantity. She brings her attributes consistently and rarely deviates from her established identity. Bleda is still evolving. Each fight has shown new layers to her grappling and a gradually improving comfort on the feet. When fighters on upward trajectories face stabilized fighters, the rate of improvement often becomes a hidden advantage.

Advanced Positional Assessment

The positional map heavily favors Bleda in every grappling related category. Striking categories lean toward Horth, but do not produce round winning control without significant damage.

Probability Modeling

Win Path Breakdown
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
If Bleda wins:
• 55 percent by decision  
• 25 percent by submission  
• 20 percent by positional TKO  

If Horth wins:
• 70 percent by KO/TKO 🔥🔥  
• 10 percent by submission  
• 20 percent by decision  

Horth’s KO equity is her strongest path. Bleda’s consistent grappling access makes her decision and submission outcomes more common.

Prop Correlation Matrix

Market Heat Map

HIGH VALUE
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Bleda by Decision  
Horth KO/TKO 🔥  
Fight Goes Distance  

MODERATE VALUE
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Over 1.5 Rounds  
Bleda Moneyline under heavy chalk  

LOW VALUE
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Horth Decision  
Bleda ITD at inflated pricing  
Long submission props for Horth  

Final Technical Breakdown

This fight ultimately comes down to whether Melissa Horth can create long enough pockets of clean, uninterrupted striking to damage Tereza Bleda before Bleda’s wrestling and top control begin shaping the tempo of the match. Both fighters have clear strengths. Both have exploitable weaknesses. But only one of them has a style that reliably produces round winning control regardless of opponent tendencies.

Horth’s win condition is built around timing, pressure and physicality. She needs to force Bleda backward, intercept entries with straight shots and create collisions that make Bleda hesitant to shoot repeatedly. Her durability and composure under fire give her the confidence to walk opponents down even when out volumed, and her power is the great equalizer in this matchup. If she lands early and forces Bleda into prolonged striking phases, she can turn the fight in her favor. Her strongest moments come when she denies clean wrestling ties and forces Bleda to strike in the open.

Bleda’s win condition is built around pace, structure and layered grappling. She does not need to win exchanges on the feet. She only needs to land her first few takedowns. Once that happens, momentum shifts dramatically. Her top control style drains energy, reduces striking efficiency and breaks rhythm. If Bleda secures takedowns in the first round, she tends to snowball control time into subsequent rounds. Her physical strength and positional stability make her extremely difficult to escape once she settles into half guard or back control.

The deeper the fight extends, the more the matchup begins to favor Bleda. She carries her grappling pace consistently, rarely fading early and often becoming more comfortable in later rounds. Horth, however, tends to lose a step when forced into grappling heavy sequences. Her defensive reactions become slightly slower, and her ability to reset distance diminishes. The longer the fight goes, the fewer opportunities she has to create the type of clean striking moment she needs.

A key tactical variable lies in how Bleda handles incoming pressure. When opponents move forward aggressively, she sometimes reacts with upright posture and defensive retreats that can expose her to straight punches. Horth will certainly test these moments. However, Bleda’s team has historically emphasized corrective adjustments between fights, and her improvements from bout to bout have been noticeable. Each appearance has shown cleaner level changes, better timing adjustments and more awareness during defensive exits. It is fair to project continued growth entering this matchup.

From a macro perspective, Bleda’s pathway is more stable and more repeatable. She can win rounds without needing damage. She can dictate flow without needing to win exchanges. Horth’s pathway, while dangerous, is more dependent on moment specific success. This does not mean she cannot win. It simply means her win relies more on creating a pivotal exchange, whereas Bleda’s relies on creating consistent, layered sequences.

Final Prediction

Tereza Bleda establishes control early by forcing clinch engagements and securing takedowns. Horth finds her best opportunities in round two when she has enough distance to land counters, but Bleda’s pace and positional dominance prove more consistent. Across three rounds, the wrestling and top pressure accumulate enough control time to neutralize Horth’s striking windows.

Prediction: Tereza Bleda wins by decision

Method confidence: High
Volatility factor: Moderate
Key swing variable: Horth’s ability to punish early entries with clean counters

Bettor’s Summary

• Bleda edge: Strongest paths via wrestling, control time, cardio and positional dominance.
• Horth path: Stuff early takedowns, force striking rounds and create big moments through straight counter power.
• Market sweet spot: Bleda by decision and fight goes the distance.
• Contrarian angle: Horth KO/TKO remains the sharpest upset entry, especially in early exchanges.
• Optimal entry point: Favor Bleda at moderate pricing. Take Horth KO props only at meaningful plus money.

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Read advanced fight analyses for all bouts on the UFC on ESPN 73 card;

Main Card

• Brandon Royval vs. Manel Kape Advanced Fight Analysis
• Giga Chikadze vs. Kevin Vallejos Advanced Fight Analysis
• Cesar Almeida vs. Cezary Oleksiejczuk Advanced Fight Analysis
• Melquizael Costa vs. Morgan Charrière Advanced Fight Analysis
• Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Marcus Buchecha Advanced Fight Analysis

Prelims

• Amanda Lemos vs. Gillian Robertson Advanced Fight Analysis
• Neil Magny vs. Yaroslav Amosov Advanced Fight Analysis
• Sean Sharaf vs. Steven Asplund Advanced Fight Analysis
• Melissa Croden vs. Luana Santos Advanced Fight Analysis
• Allen Frye Jr. vs. Guilherme Pat Advanced Fight Analysis
• Bobby “King” Green vs. Lance Gibson Jr. Advanced Fight Analysis

Disclaimer

This analysis uses AI assisted statistical research alongside human analysis and editorial oversight. Despite verification efforts, data errors may occur. Readers should independently verify odds, fighter stats and records before betting. Projections are analytical estimates, not guarantees.