Heavyweight Division (265 lbs)
Date: November 22, 2025 at 10:00am ET
Venue: ABHA Arena, Doha Qatar
Event: UFC Fight Night Prelims – Tsarukyan vs. Hooker

Fighter Backgrounds

Marek Bujlo

Bujlo enters undefeated at 6–0 with a perfectly balanced finishing profile of three knockouts and three submissions. This is a rare distribution for an early-stage heavyweight, especially one competing primarily in regional circuits where fighters tend to lean heavily toward striking or grappling. Bujlo has shown consistent ability to initiate early pressure, force reactions, and capitalize on small technical mistakes. His finishes often come from layered offense rather than single explosive moments. This includes building striking combinations that create level-change opportunities or using clinch pressure to transition to grappling sequences.

Bujlo has also shown solid defensive awareness. While competition quality varies across his resume, there are clear indicators that he manages distance responsibly, avoids wild pocket exchanges, and forces opponents into inefficient positions. His ability to finish both standing and on the ground gives him more dynamic win conditions than the typical regional heavyweight.

The main unknown with Bujlo is how he responds when forced backward. There is limited footage of him fighting off his heels or defending prolonged pressure sequences from a larger physical opponent. Freeman fits that description and will likely present the most physically imposing test of his career.

Bettor takeaway: Bujlo’s versatility, particularly his submission threat, offers broader finishing upside. His win condition is strongest after the first two minutes when the fight becomes more tactical.

Denzel Freeman

Freeman brings a stark physical advantage at 6’8″ with a heavyweight frame built for leverage, long-range power, and clinch strength. His record of five knockout victories highlights his preferred method. He does not rely on layered setups and instead builds success through reach management, heavy jabs, and straight-line power. His explosiveness early is one of his strongest assets, and most of his dominant sequences occur within the first four minutes of his fights.

Freeman is dangerous in open space but less comfortable in transitions. When opponents forced clinch engagements or grappling initiatives, he showed vulnerabilities defending off the cage and reacting to level changes. His lone professional loss came by knockout, a sign of defensive gaps when pressured or when opponents survive the initial power swings.

Even with a huge frame, Freeman’s gas tank does not crater immediately. He has one decision win, which demonstrates resilience and a workable second gear. However, his danger profile drops substantially after round one. His ability to win longer fights relies primarily on physicality rather than tactical adjustments.

Bettor takeaway: Freeman’s best chance comes in round one through a knockout. The matchup becomes increasingly unfavorable as time passes.

Stat Comparison Table

Marek Bujlo

KO/TKO     ████████████████ 50 percent
Submission ████████████████ 50 percent
Decision   ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 0 percent

Denzel Freeman

KO/TKO     ███████████████████████ 83 percent
Submission ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 0 percent
Decision   ████                  17 percent

Betting Trend Analysis & Prop Correlations

Projected Opening Lines

• Freeman: -155

• Bujlo: +125

Projected Props

• Inside Distance: -450

• Under 1.5 Rounds: -180

• Freeman Round 1 KO: +150

• Bujlo Submission: +260

Market Heat Map

Implied vs Projected Probability

Simulation Projection (10,000 Simulated Outcomes)

• Bujlo wins: 52.3 percent

• Freeman wins: 47.7 percent

• Inside Distance: 89.4 percent

• Most common outcome: Bujlo submission (Round 2)

Recommended Bets

Final Prediction

Marek Bujlo defeats Denzel Freeman by Submission in Round 2.

Bujlo’s balanced finishing profile, durability, and ability to transition into grappling sequences give him multiple viable paths as the fight moves beyond early danger. Freeman remains a major round-one threat, but Bujlo’s adaptability and finishing range create the more consistent projection.

Key Data Sources

Tapology.com
UFC.com

Bettor’s Summary

Bujlo edge:

• Versatile finisher

• Better late-round capability

• Model edge in overall win probability

Freeman path:

• Early KO

• Leverages frame and power advantage

Market sweet spot:

• Inside Distance

• Under 1.5 Rounds

Contrarian angle:

• Freeman Round 1 KO

Optimal entry point:

• If Bujlo survives early, live lines may swing in his favor

For the best UFC betting odds for Bujlo vs. Freeman at UFC Fight Night Prelims, visit bet105.ag.

Disclaimer: This preview uses AI-assisted statistical research alongside human analysis and editorial oversight. Despite verification efforts, data errors may occur. Readers should independently verify odds, fighter stats, and records before betting. Projections are analytical estimates, not guarantees.