UFC on ESPN 73 Prelims: Melissa Croden vs Luana Santos Advanced Fight Analysis

Event: UFC on ESPN 73: Royval vs Kape
Date: December 13, 2025 at 7:00pm ET (Prelims)
Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Division: Women’s Bantamweight (135 lbs)

Fighter Comparison

Note: Modeled stats applied where UFC sample sizes are limited.

Attribute Visuals

Melissa Croden

Striking Range     ███████████████░░ ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Power Punching     ████████████░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Frame Control      ███████████░░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐☆☆
Takedown Defense   ████████░░░░░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐☆☆
Scramble Ability   ██████░░░░░░░░░░  ⭐⭐☆☆☆
Durability         ████████████░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Finishing Threat   ██████████░░░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆

Luana Santos

Athletic Explosion █████████████████ ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ 🔥
Judo Entries       ███████████████░░ ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Top Control        ██████████████░░░ ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Submission Threat  ███████████░░░░░░ ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Pocket Striking    ███████░░░░░░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐☆☆
Defensive Footwork ██████░░░░░░░░░░  ⭐⭐☆☆☆
Durability         ██████████░░░░░░  ⭐⭐⭐☆☆

Expanded Fighter Backgrounds

Melissa Croden

Croden enters this matchup as the longer, more technical striker with meaningful finishing upside. Her frame plays a central role in her style. She extends punches well, maintains disciplined distance and excels when she can force opponents into linear approaches. At range, Croden uses a sharpened jab and front kick to create early reads, then loads her right hand only when opponents reach too far trying to close space. This rhythm based approach makes her particularly effective against short notice fighters or aggressive grapplers who rush entries without disguise.

Her best rounds occur when she can defend early takedowns and force resets. Croden’s sense of rhythm grows stronger as she establishes her accuracy, often leading to rounds where she more than doubles opponent output. The key challenge is that her defensive footwork becomes predictable under sustained pressure. If her back foot reaches the fence early in a round, her defensive reactions narrow, creating clearer opportunities for opponents to secure body locks or trip based takedowns.

In close quarters, Croden shows strong framing and solid posture, but her actual takedown defense drops in layered sequences. She can stop the first attempt reliably, but struggles when opponents chain entries to inside reaps, knee taps or level changes that transition into body locks. Once grounded, her bottom game is defensive and oriented toward survival over aggression. She can re guard and stall but rarely creates quick escapes.

Croden’s cardio is reliable in striking focused fights but less stable when required to defend prolonged grappling. She does her best work early, especially when she lands damaging straights before opponents have time to initiate their grappling rhythm. Her finishing power is clean and efficient. When she finds her timing, she becomes one of the more dangerous mid level strikers in the division.

Bettor Takeaway: Croden wins by controlling range, landing significant damage early and interrupting Santos’ entries. Her KO equity is real, especially in the first half of the fight.

Luana Santos

Santos represents a rising athletic archetype at bantamweight. She is fast, powerful in short bursts and excels in transitional phases where technique blends with instinctive athletic reactions. Her judo base creates a unique grappling pathway for a division filled with more conventional wrestling styles. Rather than shooting long doubles, Santos closes distance through foot sweeps, hip throws and body lock shuffles that come from angles opponents often do not expect.

Her wrestling is not based on chain shooting but rather on forcing clinch entanglements and winning through physical dominance. Once on top, Santos is a natural controller. She advances smoothly, maintains shoulder pressure and traps wrists efficiently. Opponents who try to explode out of bottom positions often give up their backs, where Santos capitalizes with submissions or extended control time that drains energy and secures rounds.

While her grappling is polished, her striking remains in development. She hits hard enough to be respected but is defensively inconsistent. Santos frequently exits pocket exchanges on a straight line with her chin elevated, creating clear countering lanes. Fighters with strong straight punches, like Croden, pose a real threat if Santos cannot disguise her entries early.

However, Santos’ clearest advantage is her youth and growth curve. Each fight demonstrates new layers in her transitions, her confidence in top control and her ability to maintain a strong pace without fading. Her finishing instincts are sharp, and her submission setups have become progressively more refined.

Bettor Takeaway: Santos wins when she forces early grappling sequences and builds momentum. Her path is more reliable across three rounds than Croden’s is.

Stat Comparison Table

Finish Type Charts

Melissa Croden

KO/TKO      ██████████████░░░ 57 percent 🔥
Submission  ████░░░░░░░░░░░░ 14 percent
Decision    █████████░░░░░░░ 29 percent

Luana Santos

KO/TKO      ███████░░░░░░░░░ 22 percent
Submission  █████████░░░░░░░ 33 percent 🔥
Decision    ██████████░░░░░░ 45 percent

Historical Matchup Context

Melissa Croden vs Luana Santos is a textbook striker versus grappler pairing, but with modern athletic layers that elevate volatility. Historically, fighters like Croden who rely on long range striking generate early success against aggressive grapplers if they establish rhythm before level changes begin. Once grapplers initiate sustained pressure, however, control time and attritional fatigue begin to decide rounds. Santos represents the newer breed of explosive, judo influenced bantamweights who thrive in transitional chaos rather than traditional wrestling sequences.

Croden has historically excelled against opponents who strike in straight lines or attempt predictable entries. Her straight counter right hand has dropped multiple regional opponents, and her ability to punish reaching jabs or level changes makes her dangerous in the first half of a fight. However, she does not handle repeated entries as well. When opponents give her different looks from shifting angles or reset clinches quickly, her defensive structure begins to show gaps.

Santos has faced long strikers before and has demonstrated a reliable ability to close distance explosively when she commits. Her judo based takedowns often bypass the need for traditional setups and allow her to surprise opponents with sudden off balance transitions. Against fighters who struggle with underhook recovery or who rely heavily on long guard framing, Santos’ style tends to create early grappling dominance.

The stylistic intersection creates a simple but consequential question. Does Croden land enough clean damage before Santos forces grappling, or does Santos create top control before Croden can establish her rhythm.

Round Finish Trends

Melissa Croden

Round 1 Finishes   ████████░░░░░░ 33 percent 🔥
Round 2 Finishes   ███████░░░░░░░ 28 percent
Round 3 Finishes   ███░░░░░░░░░░░ 10 percent
Decisions          ███████░░░░░░░ 29 percent

Luana Santos

Round 1 Finishes   ████████░░░░░░ 32 percent
Round 2 Finishes   ███████░░░░░░░ 26 percent
Round 3 Finishes   ████░░░░░░░░░░ 14 percent
Decisions          ████████░░░░░░ 28 percent

Both fighters finish early, both can create momentum quickly and both have paths to round one success. The deeper the fight goes, the more the advantage tilts toward Santos. Croden’s finishing chances diminish after the early striking exchanges. Santos’ control and submission potential grow as Croden’s footwork becomes taxed.

Momentum and Trajectory

Croden Momentum

Momentum Rating    ★★★☆☆
Trajectory         Stable
Finishing Power    High 🔥🔥🔥
Consistency        Moderate
Primary Liability  Grappling fatigue late

Santos Momentum

Momentum Rating    ★★★★☆
Trajectory         Rising ⭐
Finishing Tools    Well rounded 🔥🔥
Consistency        High
Primary Liability  Linear defensive exits

Croden is operating near her competitive peak, relying heavily on her refined striking and range mechanics. Santos, however, is still improving. Her grappling has sharpened, her entries have become more deceptive and her pace has remained consistent even in extended control sequences. Fighters on upward trajectories tend to stabilize their weaknesses faster than technicians do.

Advanced Positional Assessment

Every positional category that involves grappling leans Santos. Every striking category that relies on range leans Croden. Because grappling tends to shape round scoring more decisively than long range striking, the positional matrix favors Santos.

Probability Modeling

Win Condition Mapping
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
If Santos wins:
• 55 percent by decision  
• 25 percent by submission 🔥  
• 20 percent by ground TKO  

If Croden wins:
• 55 percent by KO/TKO 🔥🔥  
• 10 percent by submission  
• 35 percent by decision  

Croden’s finishing threat is more explosive, but Santos’ win condition is more stable and repeatable across all three rounds.

Prop Correlation Matrix

Market Heat Map

HIGH VALUE
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Santos by Decision  
Croden by KO/TKO 🔥  
Fight Ends Inside Distance (moderately priced)

MODERATE VALUE
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Over 1.5 Rounds  
Santos Moneyline at fair odds

LOW VALUE
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Croden Decision  
Santos ITD at inflated pricing  
Long shot Croden submission props

Final Technical Breakdown

The structure of this fight revolves around one decisive hinge point. Can Melissa Croden maintain clean long range discipline long enough to prevent Luana Santos from forcing early grappling sequences. Every other detail in the matchup echoes that central tension. Croden is the superior striker at distance with better precision, length and shot selection. Santos is the superior athlete with the more reliable round winning pathway through takedowns, positional control and attritional pressure.

At open space, Croden’s tools give her a real and immediate advantage. She uses her reach effectively, steps into straight shots with balance and knows how to manipulate the lead hand to create safe lanes for counters. Her right hand in particular is a threat the moment Santos begins closing distance without disguise. Croden does her best work when she can force opponents into linear approaches. If Santos gives her those entries, Croden becomes increasingly live for a knockout.

The problem for Croden is rooted in the layered nature of Santos’ pressure. Santos does not rely on conventional double leg entries. She crashes clinches with momentum, redirects balance using judo based trips and creates takedown sequences from angles where Croden’s defensive footwork becomes less relevant. Once Santos establishes a body lock or inside trip attempt, the exchange tends to evolve into long grappling phases where she holds all the advantages.

On the mat, Santos is not simply a control grappler. She advances positions decisively and rarely gives opponents the space to stand without significant resistance. Her progression from half guard to mount or back control is smooth and efficient, and she has strong instincts for isolating arms or exposing the neck during transitions. Croden’s bottom game does not contain the scrambling dynamism necessary to reverse Santos reliably. Once grounded, Croden is typically forced into guard retention and survival rather than reestablishing offense.

As rounds progress, cardio becomes an increasingly important factor. Croden’s striking remains effective early, but her movement becomes more predictable after sustained clinch or mat returns. Santos conversely tends to grow stronger as she accumulates control time. Her top pressure exhausts opponents, and her shot selection becomes safer once she establishes timing on entries. The deeper the fight goes, the clearer Santos’ advantage grows.

Durability favors neither fighter overwhelmingly but manifests differently. Croden has the sturdier chin and more structured defensive reactions. Santos has the physical resilience to pressure through damage and the grappling safety net that helps her avoid extended striking exchanges. Because of this, Croden’s clearest path involves ending the fight before Santos can drown her in grappling volume. Santos’ path requires consistency, discipline and repeated access to her strongest positions.

Technically, the matchup slightly favors Santos due to her reliable round winning mechanics. Strategically, the matchup contains high volatility because Croden’s power and timing are dangerous at any moment where Santos fails to disguise an entry. The fight is therefore a blend of stability versus explosiveness. Stability usually prevails unless the explosive fighter lands clean early.

Final Prediction

Luana Santos forces clinches early, secures takedowns in at least two of the first three rounds and creates enough top control to limit Croden’s damage output at distance. Croden lands clean in pockets and creates early threat moments, but her opportunities diminish as Santos’ pressure and grappling sequences accumulate. Santos edges Croden on control, mat returns and cardio pacing to secure a clear but competitive victory.

Prediction: Luana Santos wins by decision

Method confidence: High
Volatility factor: Moderate
Key swing variable: Croden’s early counter accuracy

Bettor’s Summary

• Santos edge: Superior grappling, more consistent round winning, stronger positional control and higher athletic ceiling.
• Croden path: Maintain long range discipline, punish entries with straight counters and secure early damage moments.
• Market sweet spot: Santos by decision and over 1.5 rounds.
• Contrarian angle: Croden KO/TKO is the most realistic upset scenario and gains value if Santos struggles with range reads.
• Optimal entry point: Santos at moderate favorite pricing. Croden KO props at meaningful plus money.

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Read advanced fight analyses for all bouts on the UFC on ESPN 73 card;

Main Card

• Brandon Royval vs. Manel Kape Advanced Fight Analysis
• Giga Chikadze vs. Kevin Vallejos Advanced Fight Analysis
• Cesar Almeida vs. Cezary Oleksiejczuk Advanced Fight Analysis
• Melquizael Costa vs. Morgan Charrière Advanced Fight Analysis
• Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Marcus Buchecha Advanced Fight Analysis

Prelims

• Amanda Lemos vs. Gillian Robertson Advanced Fight Analysis
• Neil Magny vs. Yaroslav Amosov Advanced Fight Analysis
• Sean Sharaf vs. Steven Asplund Advanced Fight Analysis
• Allen Frye Jr. vs. Guilherme Pat Advanced Fight Analysis
• Jamey-Lyn Horth vs. Tereza Bleda Advanced Fight Analysis
• Bobby “King” Green vs. Lance Gibson Jr. Advanced Fight Analysis

Disclaimer

This analysis uses AI assisted statistical research alongside human analysis and editorial oversight. Despite verification efforts, data errors may occur. Readers should independently verify odds, fighter stats and records before betting. Projections are analytical estimates, not guarantees.