Fighter Comparison

Ulanbekov brings a long frame for flyweight, a grappling heavy approach and a surging run of four straight UFC wins, including dominant efforts over Clayton Carpenter, Cody Durden and Azat Maksum that pushed him into the top 15.

Horiguchi returns to the UFC as one of the most accomplished small men in MMA history, with major titles in RIZIN and Bellator and wins over names like Darrion Caldwell, Ben Nguyen, Hiromasa Ougikubo, Manel Kape and Sergio Pettis.

Style and Attribute Profile

Tagir Ulanbekov

Kyoji Horiguchi

On paper this is a reach and wrestling advantage for Ulanbekov versus a speed and striking sophistication advantage for Horiguchi. The question for bettors is whether Horiguchi can maintain the footwork and reactive takedown defense that carried him through years of five round fights against elite opposition, or whether Ulanbekov’s pace and chain wrestling can drag this into a grind that neutralizes the karate entries.

Fighter Backgrounds

Tagir Ulanbekov

Ulanbekov is a combat sambo world champion from Dagestan who blends the familiar Dagestani pressure style with a slightly more patient tempo than some of his teammates. He is a long time teammate of high level grapplers at Eagles MMA and American Kickboxing Academy, and his rise through Fight Nights Global to the UFC was built on dominant top control, wrist rides and back takes rather than raw knockout power.

Since joining the UFC, Ulanbekov is 6 – 1 with wins over Allan Nascimento, Nate Maness, Cody Durden, Clayton Carpenter and Azat Maksum, with his lone setback a competitive decision loss to Tim Elliott. His UFC stat profile shows roughly 3.2 significant strikes landed per minute at mid 40s accuracy, around 3.0 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and a submission average north of 1.5 attempts per 15 minutes, which backs up what tape shows: steady stand up, higher end wrestling and real finishing threat once he establishes back control.

Bettor takeaway: Ulanbekov is less of a one shot finisher and more of a positional strangler. His fights often feature rounds that are clear once he gets to his positions, but he can leave stand up exchanges closer than they need to be if he is slow to initiate the wrestling.

Kyoji Horiguchi

Horiguchi returns to the UFC with one of the best small fighter résumés in the sport. After a competitive title loss to Demetrious Johnson in 2015, he left the promotion and became a dual champion in RIZIN and Bellator at bantamweight, winning tournaments and belts while beating names like Darrion Caldwell, Manel Kape, Ian McCall, Sergio Pettis and Makoto Takahashi.

Stylistically he is a classic karate based mover with explosive in and out entries, a powerful right hand and hard low kicks. His defense is built on distance control and angles rather than a high guard, which has worked for him across more than forty pro outings but has shown cracks in long exchanges as mileage accumulates. Still, his win finish rate near 59 percent, high quality of competition and proven five round engine make him one of the most battle tested fighters on this card.

Bettor takeaway: Horiguchi brings serious live dog qualities that the moneyline alone might not fully capture, particularly early round knockout equity, slick counters when opponents over pursue and the ability to win striking minutes cleanly if he can keep his back off the fence.

Key Statistical Comparison

Statistically, Ulanbekov profiles as the better minute winner in wrestling heavy fights and Horiguchi as the more dangerous and slightly more efficient striker. The market correctly prices Tagir as the favorite because of his repeatable path to control the grappling phases, but the striking metrics and historical finishing show why many sharp bettors still see dog equity on Horiguchi at the right number.

Finish Type Charts

Tagir Ulanbekov

Kyoji Horiguchi

Ulanbekov’s paths are roughly balanced between submissions and decisions. Horiguchi is more weighted toward knockouts, especially at bantamweight, but his recent run has included several decision wins in longer fights as he has managed risk deep into his thirties.

Round Finish and Durability Trends

Both men are durable, but Horiguchi has taken more knockdowns and heavy damage over a longer career, including a late spinning backfist knockout loss to Sergio Pettis and a grinding decision loss to Patchy Mix. Ulanbekov has mostly taken controlled damage in the UFC, with the Elliott fight as the only clear setback and no stoppage losses at this level.

Historical Matchup Context

Rather than forcing speculative numeric splits for striker, grappler and southpaw matchups, it is more useful to look at the most relevant analogues for each man.

Tagir Ulanbekov vs mobile strikers

• Tim Elliott pushed a scrambling heavy, unorthodox stand up and clinch wrestling game and won a decision by out scrambling Tagir and creating constant chaos.
• Clayton Carpenter and Azat Maksum brought modern, well rounded games with decent movement, but Ulanbekov’s takedown entries, chain attempts and back takes steadily tilted the scoring toward him over three rounds.

Kyoji Horiguchi vs pressure wrestlers and grapplers

• Demetrious Johnson repeatedly took Horiguchi down and controlled him, eventually finishing with a last second armbar in the fifth round. That fight remains the extreme example of what an elite flyweight wrestler with cardio and pace can do to his style.
• Darrion Caldwell tried to lean heavily on wrestling in RIZIN, but Horiguchi scrambled, adjusted and ultimately choked him in one fight then outworked him over five rounds in another.

The Elliott and Johnson fights frame the extreme downside for each man in this matchup. Ulanbekov can be thrown off when someone refuses to concede control and constantly scrambles, while Horiguchi’s defensive wrestling can drown under sustained, high level cage wrestling and mat returns. Ulanbekov is not as dynamic a striker or submission threat as Johnson, but his takedown volume and top control resemble a scaled down version. Horiguchi is more seasoned and defensively polished now than he was for the Johnson title fight, but he is also older, with more mileage.

Betting Trends and Line Movement

The moneyline opened with Ulanbekov around -170 and Horiguchi around +145 at some books and has generally steamed toward the Dagestani, with many boards now showing ranges closer to Ulanbekov -180 to -230 and Horiguchi +155 to as high as the mid +190s depending on the operator.

Prop markets and expert previews show a consistent theme: most analysts expect Ulanbekov to win by decision if he wins, while a significant share of Horiguchi backers are targeting him through knockout or decision props rather than the straight moneyline.

• Several preview pieces pick Ulanbekov outright and specifically highlight Ulanbekov by decision at roughly plus money as a standout angle.
• Method of victory markets in North American and European books price Ulanbekov by decision close to even or slight plus money, with Ulanbekov by submission in the mid plus 400s, while Horiguchi by KO or decision typically sits at much longer numbers.

In other words, the market broadly agrees on the script: Ulanbekov grinding minutes, Horiguchi hunting moments. That creates potential inefficiencies where the method markets are slow to adjust to real time line movement on the moneyline.

Market Heat Map

Line shopping is critical for this fight. Differences of 20 to 40 cents on key markets like Ulanbekov by decision or Horiguchi by KO meaningfully change the long term edge, especially for high volume bettors using reduced vigorish operators such as crypto native books like bet105.

Implied Probability Snapshot

Using one representative band of market prices around Ulanbekov -200 and Horiguchi +170, the approximate implied probabilities before accounting for bookmaker margin are:

This projection leans toward the market being efficient on the straight side rather than wildly mispricing one fighter. The more interesting edges show up in the method markets, where the gap between how these men win and how the public anchors on narrative can leave slow moving prices.

Simulation Based Outcome Breakdown

Based on the stylistic matchup, career statistics and current age and mileage for both fighters, a reasonable simulation style breakdown for the main outcome buckets looks like this:

This breakdown aligns closely with how the method markets are priced, with one key difference: models that respect Horiguchi’s finishing history often grade his KO chances slightly higher than the market and his straight decision equity slightly higher than the headline dog price suggests.

Live Betting and Round by Round Dynamics

Round 1

• Expect Horiguchi to come out light on his feet, testing range with kicks and single shots, while Tagir looks to feel out timing for level changes.
• If Ulanbekov struggles to get to his ties in the first three minutes, live lines may move slightly toward Horiguchi as the eye test favors the more dynamic striker early.
• If Tagir finds the body lock or double leg consistently in the opening round and holds top position, live opportunities on Ulanbekov by decision or submission can become more attractive than pre fight prices.

Rounds 2 and 3

• Cardio and mileage patterns suggest Ulanbekov’s steady style holds up well late, while Horiguchi’s explosiveness may wane if he spends large stretches getting up from bad positions.
• Late Horiguchi money is most interesting if he appears to stuff takedowns cleanly and exits clinches without giving up prolonged control while still landing the cleaner shots.
• If damage clearly favors Tagir and Horiguchi is accepting bottom or surrendering his back, chasing long shot Horiguchi KO tickets in live markets becomes thin, while late submission hedges on Tagir can still be reasonable given his back taking tendencies in tired scrambles.

Recommended Betting Angles

These are framed as information, not guarantees, and assume access to competitive, reduced vig markets and aggressive line shopping.

Bettors comfortable with multi leg structures can combine Ulanbekov moneyline with other correlated props on the card, or use his decision line as a key anchor on sharp books like bet105 where reduced juice helps preserve long term edge.

Final Prediction and Bettor Summary

Technical Read: Over three rounds, Ulanbekov’s southpaw jab, long kicks and level changes should be just active enough to prevent Horiguchi from getting completely comfortable at range. While Horiguchi’s first step and counters may still win him pockets of the stand up, the takedown and clinch threat forces him to be more selective with his combinations than in some of his RIZIN and Bellator performances.

On the mat, Ulanbekov’s body lock series, mat returns and preference for back control compare favorably against Horiguchi’s current defensive grappling profile. Horiguchi can scramble and get to his feet, but at this stage of his career the effort required to repeatedly stand up against elite flyweight wrestlers tends to tax his gas tank and limit his output in later rounds.

Risk Factors: Horiguchi still carries real knockout power for the division and is fully capable of punishing lazy entries or extended pocket exchanges. If Tagir falls in love with his striking, fails to respect the counter right hand or struggles to cut the cage, the veteran can absolutely steal rounds and even produce a momentum swinging knockdown.

Base Case: Over most simulated fights, however, Ulanbekov’s youth advantage in UFC years, physicality, reach and wrestling volume produce more consistent scoring positions. He may drop a competitive round on the feet, but his ability to bank top control time and land meaningful strikes from advantageous positions should be enough to carry the cards.

Official Prediction and Pick: Tagir Ulanbekov by unanimous decision.

From a betting perspective, this points directly at Ulanbekov by decision as the primary actionable angle where pricing and stylistic read intersect, with smaller speculative exposure on Horiguchi by KO / TKO for those seeking asymmetric upside if the veteran’s timing and power show up early. Straight moneyline exposure on Ulanbekov is more about bankroll structure than raw edge at current prices and is best reserved for reduced vig books and carefully constructed parlays.

Disclaimer

This analysis uses AI-assisted statistical research alongside human analysis and editorial oversight. Despite verification efforts, data errors may occur. Readers should independently verify odds, fighter stats, and records before betting. Projections are analytical estimates, not guarantees.