Vikings vs. Bears Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL Week 1

A new era begins in Chicago as the Bears, under new head coach Ben Johnson, host the rival Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night Football to kick off their 2025 NFL season. This NFC North showdown at Soldier Field is more than just a season opener; it’s a critical test for two teams at a crossroads.

The Vikings have historically dominated this matchup, winning eight of the last ten meetings. However, with a rookie quarterback at the helm and a revamped Bears team eager to impress, the dynamics have shifted. This article provides a comprehensive betting preview, including the latest odds from bet105, key predictions, and the best player prop bets for this highly anticipated game.

Vikings vs. Bears: Odds Overview

Here’s a look at the current betting lines from bet105 for this Week 1 clash:

Odds are subject to change. Always check bet105 for the latest lines.

Vikings vs. Bears Prediction

While the Vikings have had the upper hand in recent years, the Bears enter this season with a renewed sense of optimism. The arrival of offensive guru Ben Johnson as head coach is expected to unlock the potential of second-year quarterback Caleb Williams and a talented group of offensive weapons. Johnson’s system, which emphasizes creativity and yards after the catch, could pose a significant challenge for a Vikings defense that relies heavily on blitzing.

On the other side, the Vikings are placing their faith in rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who is making his NFL debut after missing the entire 2024 season with a knee injury. Facing a tough road environment and a defense eager to make a statement, McCarthy could be in for a long night. The Bears’ defensive front, led by Montez Sweat, has the ability to generate pressure and force the young quarterback into mistakes.

Our prediction: Bears 24, Vikings 17. We’re backing the home team to cover the spread and win outright in a statement victory to start the Ben Johnson era.

Best Player Prop Bets for Vikings vs. Bears

Player props offer excellent value opportunities for this Monday Night Football matchup. Based on the current bet105 lines, here are our top recommendations:

Caleb Williams Props

Passing Yards: Over 219.5 (-115) With Ben Johnson’s new offensive system emphasizing quick reads and yards after catch, Williams should have plenty of opportunities to rack up passing yards. The Vikings’ aggressive defense under Brian Flores can be vulnerable to quick passing attacks, and Williams has weapons like DJ Moore and Rome Odunze who excel at creating separation. At 219.5 yards, this line seems conservative for a quarterback in his second season with improved offensive line protection.

Pass Completions: Under 20.5 (+102) While Williams should throw for good yardage, the under on completions offers value at plus money. Johnson’s system often features deeper routes and YAC opportunities, meaning Williams may not need as many completions to reach his yardage total. The Vikings’ pressure could also force some incompletions.

Passing Touchdowns: Over 1.5 (+102) At plus money, this represents excellent value. The Bears’ red zone efficiency should improve significantly under Johnson’s creative play-calling, and Williams has multiple touchdown threats in the passing game.

Justin Jefferson Props

Receiving Yards: Under 78.5 (-115) Despite Jefferson’s elite talent, he’ll be catching passes from rookie J.J. McCarthy making his NFL debut. The Bears’ defense will likely bracket Jefferson and force McCarthy to find other options. In a potentially low-scoring game with an inexperienced quarterback, the under offers value.

Receptions: Under 6.5 (-153) The heavy juice on the under suggests the market expects McCarthy to struggle finding Jefferson consistently. While the price is steep, it aligns with our expectation that the rookie quarterback will have difficulty against Chicago’s defense.

Running Back Props

D’Andre Swift Rushing Yards: Over 52.5 (-115) Swift should see increased usage in Johnson’s system, which effectively utilized running backs in Detroit. The Vikings’ defense may focus on stopping the pass, potentially leaving running lanes available.

Aaron Jones Receptions: Under 2.5 (-102) With McCarthy’s inexperience, the Vikings may rely more heavily on traditional handoffs rather than complex passing concepts to running backs. The under at even money offers value.

Wide Receiver Props

DJ Moore Receiving Yards: Over 57.5 (-115) Moore should benefit significantly from Johnson’s system, which creates opportunities for receivers to gain yards after the catch. As Williams’ most reliable target, Moore is positioned for a strong performance.

Rome Odunze Receptions: Over 4.5 (+119) At plus money, this offers excellent value for a talented receiver in his second season. Johnson’s system should create opportunities for Odunze to see increased targets, especially if the Bears build an early lead.

Tight End Props

T.J. Hockenson Receptions: Under 4.5 (-132) With McCarthy’s inexperience and the Bears’ focus on pressuring the rookie quarterback, Hockenson may not see the consistent targets needed to reach this total. The Vikings may rely more on quick throws to running backs and shorter routes to wide receivers.

Complete Player Props Table

Vikings Best Bets

• Under 21.5 Total Points (-106): With a rookie quarterback making his first start on the road against a tough defense, the Vikings may struggle to put up points. The under on their team total is an attractive bet.

Bears Best Bets

• Over 22.5 Total Points (+110): The Bears’ offense is expected to be much improved under Ben Johnson, and they’re facing a Vikings defense that can be vulnerable. The over on their team total offers good value, especially at plus money.
• Moneyline (+106): As mentioned earlier, we like the Bears to win this game outright. At +106, the moneyline offers a solid payout for a home team with a significant coaching advantage.

Team Analysis: Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears enter the 2025 season with a renewed sense of optimism following the hiring of Ben Johnson as their new head coach. Johnson, who previously served as the offensive coordinator for the Detroit Lions, brings a proven track record of success and innovation to the Windy City. In 2024, his Lions offense led the league with 33.2 points per game and earned him the AP NFL Assistant Coach of the Year award.

Johnson’s offensive philosophy centers around precision, creativity, and adaptability. His system makes heavy use of pre-snap motion and emphasizes yards after the catch (YAC), which should play to the strengths of the Bears’ talented skill position players. The Bears have assembled an impressive group of offensive weapons, including wide receivers DJ Moore and Rome Odunze, tight ends Cole Kmet and rookie Colston Loveland, and running back D’Andre Swift.

The key to the Bears’ success will be the development of second-year quarterback Caleb Williams. Williams showed flashes of brilliance during his rookie season but struggled with consistency, completing just 62.5% of his passes. Johnson has set an ambitious goal for Williams to reach a 70% completion rate in 2025, which would represent a significant improvement and unlock the full potential of the offense.

To help Williams achieve this goal, the Bears have invested heavily in their offensive line. They’ve added three key pieces: Joe Thuney, a perennial All-Pro who posted a 90.4 pass-blocking grade last season; Jonah Jackson, who is familiar with Johnson’s system from their time together in Detroit; and Drew Dalman, acquired from Atlanta and known for his quick hands and ability to read defenses. This trio forms the most competent interior line Chicago has had in years and should provide Williams with the protection he needs to execute Johnson’s system effectively.

Defensively, the Bears are led by coordinator Dennis Allen and feature a talented front seven anchored by pass rusher Montez Sweat, defensive tackle Grady Jarrett, and second-year player Gervon Dexter Sr. The Bears ranked in the top 10 in quarterback pressures last season, and they’ll be looking to exploit the inexperience of Vikings rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy.

Team Analysis: Minnesota Vikings

The Minnesota Vikings enter the 2025 season under the continued leadership of head coach Kevin O’Connell, who boasts an impressive 34-17 record over his first three seasons. O’Connell has guided the Vikings to two playoff appearances, though he’s still seeking his first postseason victory. His offensive system is known for being quarterback-friendly, which should help ease the transition for rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy.

McCarthy, the former Michigan standout, is making his NFL debut after missing the entire 2024 season with a knee injury. While he possesses the arm talent and football IQ to succeed at the professional level, his lack of NFL experience could be a significant liability, especially in a hostile road environment like Soldier Field on Monday Night Football.

The Vikings’ offensive success will largely depend on how quickly McCarthy can develop chemistry with star wide receiver Justin Jefferson, one of the most dynamic playmakers in the NFL. Jefferson has consistently been among the league leaders in receiving yards and will be McCarthy’s primary target. However, the Bears’ defense will undoubtedly focus on limiting Jefferson’s impact, which could force McCarthy to find other options.

Defensively, the Vikings are coordinated by Brian Flores, who is known for his aggressive, blitz-heavy approach. Flores called blitzes on over 40% of snaps last season, using stunts and disguised packages to disrupt opposing offenses. The Vikings’ defense was particularly effective in 2024, allowing opponents to score on a league-low 31.6% of their drives.

However, this aggressive approach can also leave the defense vulnerable to big plays if opposing offenses can identify and exploit the blitzes. With Ben Johnson’s reputation for creativity and pre-snap motion, the Bears may be well-equipped to counter Flores’ aggressive schemes.

Betting Analysis and Strategy

From a betting perspective, this game presents several interesting angles. The spread has the Vikings as slight road favorites at -1, which reflects their recent dominance in the head-to-head matchup. However, there are several factors that suggest the Bears might be the better bet:

1. Coaching Advantage: Ben Johnson’s arrival represents a significant upgrade for the Bears’ offensive system. His track record of success and ability to maximize player potential could be the difference-maker in this game.

2. Home Field Advantage: Playing at Soldier Field in front of an energized home crowd should provide the Bears with additional motivation and energy, especially for a season opener under a new coach.

3. Quarterback Experience: While neither team has a proven veteran quarterback, Caleb Williams has at least one full NFL season under his belt, compared to McCarthy’s complete lack of professional experience.

4. Offensive Line Improvements: The Bears’ significant investments in their offensive line should pay immediate dividends, providing Williams with better protection and more time to make decisions.

The total of 44 points seems reasonable given the circumstances. Both teams have question marks at the quarterback position, which could lead to a lower-scoring affair. However, the Bears’ improved offensive system under Johnson could provide enough firepower to push the game over the total.

Historical Context and Trends

The Vikings have dominated this rivalry in recent years, winning eight of the last ten meetings between these NFC North foes. This historical dominance is reflected in the betting line, with Minnesota favored despite playing on the road.

However, it’s worth noting that coaching changes can significantly alter team dynamics and performance. The Bears’ decision to hire Ben Johnson represents a major philosophical shift, and early-season games often provide the best opportunities to capitalize on such changes before the betting market fully adjusts.

From a trends perspective, rookie quarterbacks making their first NFL start often struggle, particularly in hostile road environments. The pressure of Monday Night Football, combined with the energy of a Bears home crowd eager to see their new coach succeed, could create a challenging environment for McCarthy.

Final Thoughts and Recommendations

This Week 1 matchup between the Vikings and Bears represents more than just a season opener; it’s a potential turning point for both franchises. The Bears are betting on Ben Johnson’s offensive genius to unlock their potential, while the Vikings are placing their faith in a rookie quarterback with no professional experience.

Our analysis suggests that the Bears are well-positioned to cover the spread and potentially win outright. The combination of coaching upgrade, home field advantage, and improved offensive line should provide enough of an edge to overcome the Vikings’ recent historical dominance.

For bettors looking to get involved in this game, we recommend:

1. Bears +1 (-102): The spread offers good value for a home team with significant advantages.
2. Bears Moneyline (+106): At plus money, the Bears’ moneyline represents excellent value for an outright win.
3. Over 22.5 Bears Team Total (+110): The improved offense should be able to put up points against a Vikings defense that may struggle to adjust to Johnson’s system.

Remember to always bet responsibly and within your means. Good luck, and enjoy what should be an exciting start to the 2025 NFL season!