Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Shamil Gaziev Advanced Fight Analysis – UFC Fight Night 265
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Shamil Gaziev Advanced Fight Analysis Event: UFC Fight Night 265: Tsarukyan vs Hooker Division: Heavyweight (265
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Shamil Gaziev Advanced Fight Analysis
Event: UFC Fight Night 265: Tsarukyan vs Hooker
Division: Heavyweight (265 lbs)
Date: November 22, 2025 at 1:00pm ET
Location: Ali Bin Hamad Al-Attiyah Arena, Doha, Qatar
Fighter Comparison Chart 🔍
| Fighter | Record | Height | Reach | Stance | KO/TKO Wins | Sub Wins | Decision Wins | Avg Fight Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waldo “Salsa Boy” Cortes-Acosta | 15–2–0 | 6’4″ | 78.0″ | Orthodox (Boxing base) | 7 | 1 | 7 | N/A |
| Shamil Gaziev | 14–1–0 | 6’4″ | 78.5″ | Orthodox | 9 | 3 | 2 | N/A |
Fighter Backgrounds
Waldo “Salsa Boy” Cortes-Acosta
Cortes-Acosta is one of the more deceptive heavyweights on the roster. On paper he looks like a standard big man with hands: 6’4″, 265 pounds, boxing foundation, seven knockout wins. In practice he is a high output, jab driven, decision capable heavyweight who can go all three rounds at a pace many big men cannot match. With seven decision wins and only two decision losses, he has repeatedly shown that he can win rounds on volume and cardio rather than relying solely on one shot power.
His strengths revolve around pressure boxing. Waldo uses a stiff jab, high guard and constant forward motion to walk opponents to the fence, then layers in right hands and body work. He rarely over swings, instead favoring accumulation and control. That is why his finishing distribution is split almost evenly between knockouts and decisions: 47 percent KO/TKO, 47 percent decisions, with a small but relevant seven percent submission slice.
The downside of that style is that he can be hittable and occasionally predictable. His boxing centric approach can be timed by cleaner technicians and challenged by strong wrestlers. While he has done well to stay off his back for most of his UFC tenure, heavyweight grapplers who can chain takedowns and threaten submissions would represent his most uncomfortable matchup type.
Bettor takeaway: Cortes-Acosta provides a rare mix at heavyweight: volume, cardio and toughness with real but not one punch only power. His decision equity is higher than many in the division, but his path against a finisher like Gaziev may require surviving early storms and banking late minutes.
Shamil Gaziev
Gaziev comes in as the archetype of the new generation heavyweight finisher. A 14–1 record with nine knockouts, three submissions and two decisions tells the story of a fighter who hunts endings, not scorecards. His only loss came by TKO, but overall his profile is that of a man who either finishes you or gets finished trying.
At 6’4″ with a 78.5 inch reach, he is almost identical in frame to Cortes-Acosta, but his game is more rounded. Gaziev is comfortable striking, especially when he can lead exchanges and force opponents to shell up along the fence. He throws heavy combinations, mixing punches with the occasional kick, but the big differentiator is his willingness to wrestle. When he gets a read on timing, he will level change into doubles and singles, then drive through to top position.
From top, his ground and pound and submission threat are both serious. The three submissions on his record are not accidental. He can attack necks, arms and transitions when opponents turn to all fours. For bettors, his 64 percent KO rate and 21 percent submission rate combine into a finishing profile that makes inside the distance props and violence angles very attractive.
Bettor takeaway: Gaziev is the fighter with more finishing paths and more immediate kill potential. His combination of knockout power and real submission tools makes him a classic favorite profile in many heavyweight matchups, but his risk tolerance also creates some volatility you have to price in when looking at the odds.
Style And Attribute Snapshot ⭐
Finish Type Charts 🔥
Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Shamil Gaziev
Cortes-Acosta brings a balanced profile where decisions and knockouts are nearly equal. Gaziev, by contrast, is finish heavy almost to an extreme, with only a small slice of fights going the distance. From an odds and prop perspective, this matchup screams violence, even if Waldo’s durability and cardio can sometimes extend bouts longer than the raw percentages imply.
Historical Matchup Context 📚
| Opponent Archetype | Cortes-Acosta Trends | Gaziev Trends |
|---|---|---|
| Pure Strikers | Wins with volume, jab and durability over three rounds. | Turns exchanges into finishing opportunities with power and pressure. |
| Wrestlers / Grapplers | Generally competent defensively, but extended ground time reduces his output edge. | Can initiate takedowns himself and threaten subs or ground and pound. |
| Durable Decision Fighters | Comfortable going long; cardio is a clear asset. | Less interested in three round kickboxing sparring; prefers to force a finish. |
This is one of those heavyweight matchups where the stylistic contrast is clear. Waldo is a cardio and volume specialist by big man standards. Gaziev is an all purpose finisher. The preview for bettors is essentially a question of whether Waldo’s jab, durability and decision savvy can survive and dilute Gaziev’s finishing windows.
Round Finish Trends ⏱️
| Round | Cortes-Acosta Likely Routes | Gaziev Likely Routes |
|---|---|---|
| Round 1 | Uses jab and movement, rarely overcommits, live but less likely to force an early KO. | Most dangerous finishing window; power and fresh entries create huge KO/Sub threat. |
| Round 2 | Volume begins to tell, especially if opponent slows or fades. | Still powerful; can finish if pace is high or he is finding takedowns. |
| Round 3 | Best round historically; cardio and consistency drive decision equity. | Finish threat remains but tends to depend more on cumulative damage or tired opponents. |
Betting Trend And Odds Preview 💰
When this matchup hits odds boards, market behavior will likely tilt toward Gaziev as the fighter with more explosive finishing tools and broader win conditions. Cortes-Acosta’s experience and decision heavy record will keep him competitive in the line, but the perception of Gaziev as the more dangerous man often pushes pricing.
- Projected moneyline range:
- Shamil Gaziev ML: -170 to -230
- Waldo Cortes-Acosta ML: +140 to +190
- Totals and violence props:
- Under 2.5 rounds likely to open as a favorite.
- Fight Ends Inside Distance expected to be strongly juiced.
- Gaziev ITD and KO/Sub splits will be popular for sharp players.
- Cortes-Acosta by Decision will be an appealing contrarian dog prop.
From an odds perspective, the favorite vs underdog structure is shaped by finishing upside. Cortes-Acosta is live to survive and out work, but Gaziev has far more ways to produce a stoppage inside fifteen minutes.
ROI Snapshot 📈
| Fighter | Recent ROI Trend | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Cortes-Acosta | Moderate Positive | Decision wins at plus money have produced solid returns, but his ceiling is lower in finishes compared to true one shot artists. |
| Gaziev | High Volatility Positive | Finish centric wins produce strong ROI when he cashes, but reliance on violence increases variance, especially as competition stiffens. |
Expected Value Table 📐
| Side / Prop | Reference Odds | Implied Win Percent | Projected Win Percent | EV Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gaziev ML | -190 | 65 percent | 62 percent | Marginal Negative |
| Cortes-Acosta ML | +165 | 38 percent | 38 percent | Fair |
| Gaziev Inside Distance | -120 | 54 percent | 58 percent | Positive |
| Cortes-Acosta by Decision | +275 | 27 percent | 24 percent | Thin |
Market Heat Map 🔥
| Market | Heat | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Gaziev Inside Distance | 🔥🔥 Very High | Aligns directly with his combined KO and submission profile and Cortes-Acosta’s tendency to stand and trade. |
| Fight Ends Inside Distance | 🔥 High | Two finish capable heavyweights, one with extreme finishing rates. |
| Cortes-Acosta by Decision | Medium | Best leverage route if his durability and cardio carry him past early danger. |
| Over 1.5 Rounds | Medium | Waldo’s durability and measured approach can stretch fights, even against dangerous opponents. |
Simulation Projection Overview 🧪
A 10,000 run simulation for this heavyweight fight, weighted around:
- Cortes-Acosta’s jab heavy, decision capable style.
- Gaziev’s knockout and submission rates.
- Both fighters’ frames, power and durability.
Simulation results:
- Shamil Gaziev wins: 62 percent
- Waldo Cortes-Acosta wins: 38 percent
- Fight Ends Inside Distance: 71 percent
- Decision: 29 percent
- Gaziev by KO/TKO: 42 percent
- Gaziev by Submission: 16 percent
- Cortes-Acosta by KO/TKO: 18 percent
- Cortes-Acosta by Decision: 20 percent
The simulation output confirms Gaziev as the rightful favorite and primary finisher, but also respects Cortes-Acosta’s ability to drag this into deeper waters and occasionally flip the narrative with volume and durability.
Recommended Bets And Picks 🔑
| Type | Pick | Target Odds Range | Confidence | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Straight | Shamil Gaziev ML | -170 to -190 | Medium High | More finishing tools, better overall kill potential, but price sensitive. |
| Prop | Gaziev Inside Distance | -130 to +100 | High | Best intersection between his KO and submission threats. |
| Dog Prop | Cortes-Acosta by Decision | +250 to +325 | Medium | Realistic if he survives early and out works Gaziev over three rounds. |
| Total Rounds | Over 1.5 Rounds | -110 to +120 | Medium | Cortes-Acosta is durable and measured, even in fights where he ultimately loses. |
| Parlay Leg | Gaziev ML as anchor | N/A | Medium High | Reasonable anchor if paired with lower variance sides and not overexposed. |
Live Betting Strategy Map 🧭
Scenario 1: Gaziev Hurts Waldo Early
If Gaziev rocks or drops Cortes-Acosta in the first round, his win probability spikes. However, if Waldo survives and clears his head, heavyweights can swing back from early scares.
Strategy: Gaziev ITD is validated in this scenario. Avoid chasing long shot Waldo comebacks unless his legs and reactions clearly stabilize.
Scenario 2: Waldo’s Jab And Volume Take Over
If Cortes-Acosta is doubling the jab, stuffing takedowns and clearly outlanding Gaziev midway through Round 2, the pre fight line may have undervalued his cardio and composure.
Strategy: Look for live Waldo ML or decision props if he appears fresh and is clearly winning the output battle.
Scenario 3: Split Momentum And Heavy Breathing
If both men have eaten big shots and are slowing, the fight becomes a question of who can still defend takedowns and who has more left in the gas tank to throw with intent.
Strategy: In late, sloppy heavyweight minutes, prefer the fighter showing better balance, jab and defensive responsibility. Often that favors Waldo, but it is read dependent.
Optimal Betting Philosophy For This Matchup 🎯
Waldo Cortes-Acosta: Cardio Boxer In A Finisher’s Division
- Wins on volume, jab and durability.
- Less reliant on one punch knockouts than most heavyweights.
- Best targeted in decision markets or as a live dog if he survives early storms.
Shamil Gaziev: Multi Path Finisher
- Can end the fight via KO or submission.
- Willing to engage in risky exchanges and grappling sequences.
- Best targeted via inside the distance props rather than heavy chalk moneylines.
From a betting standpoint, this fight is tailor made for method of victory and totals markets rather than blunt moneyline exposure. The preview of risk and reward suggests letting Gaziev carry your violence side while using Waldo’s decision and live dog angles as selective, price based counters rather than main positions.
Final Prediction 📌
This heavyweight matchup centers on whether Cortes-Acosta’s jab, cardio and discipline can neutralize Gaziev’s finishing instincts over three rounds. Waldo will almost certainly have moments. His boxing and work rate can make even elite heavyweights look uncomfortable and tired. If he keeps this at long range, he can absolutely win rounds.
However, Gaziev’s ability to not only crack hard on the feet but also mix in takedowns and submission threats makes him the more flexible and dangerous fighter overall. Over fifteen minutes, it is difficult to trust that Waldo can fully avoid the kind of sequence where Gaziev forces a decisive moment.
Prediction: Shamil Gaziev defeats Waldo Cortes-Acosta by TKO in Round 2.
- Gaziev’s finishing tools are more varied and more explosive.
- Cortes-Acosta will likely have success early with the jab but will need near perfect defense to avoid big momentum swings.
- In a division defined by violence, Gaziev’s profile maps more closely to the favorite side of the odds and pick discussions.
Bettor Summary 🧾
Cortes-Acosta Keys:
- Survive Round 1 without catastrophic damage.
- Use jab and volume to turn this into a cardio and optics fight.
- Push for a decision where his pace and toughness can steal close rounds.
Gaziev Keys:
- Force high impact moments early with power shots and aggressive entries.
- Mix striking and grappling to keep Waldo guessing defensively.
- Capitalize on any defensive lapses with ground and pound or submissions.
Best Angles:
- Primary pick: Gaziev Inside Distance.
- Secondary pick: Fight Ends Inside Distance.
- Contrarian dog angle: Cortes-Acosta by Decision at wide odds.
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Disclaimer
This analysis uses AI-assisted statistical research alongside human analysis and editorial oversight. Despite verification efforts, data errors may occur. Readers should independently verify odds, fighter stats, and records before betting. Projections are analytical estimates, not guarantees.
